#美联储回购协议计划 #比特币与黄金战争
1. Federal Reserve Internal Division: Will it really bet so big with a 100 basis point rate cut in 2026?
On December 11, the Federal Reserve cut rates to 3.5%-3.75%, which seemed ordinary, but behind the scenes, it exploded — three dissenting votes, one called for a 50 basis point cut, and one opposed the rate cut. Among 19 officials, a complete split:
3 wanted to raise rates, 4 did not want to cut, 4 wanted one cut, and 8 wanted more than one cut.
The real bomb thrower is Federal Reserve Governor Waller. He directly stated during the interview: In 2026, a 100 basis point cut will occur, bringing rates down to 2.5%-2.75%. The reason is simple: employment can't hold up anymore.
Powell has already admitted: Official employment data may have overstated by 60,000, and the real net job growth might already be negative.
The unemployment rate has risen to 4.4%, the highest since 2021. Even more frightening is:
The unemployment rate for graduates aged 20-24 has surged to 8.5%, and this group accounts for over 40% of the U.S. workforce — they are hesitant to spend money, and the consumption chain will immediately break.