To put it bluntly, I feel that over the next two weeks, the market is likely to decline slowly.
There are three main reasons:
First, the market has run out of money. Large funds in Europe and the United States are on holiday, and relying solely on the funds from Asia cannot support the entire market; there is no fresh capital coming in.
Second, the selling pressure is still present. Although some institutions are adjusting their positions, let's not forget that recently a batch of expiring options includes a significant number of put options. Those holding these options may sell their Bitcoin before expiration to lock in profits or hedge against risks, creating actual selling pressure.
Third, market sentiment is too bleak. One obvious signal is that volatility is decreasing, which indicates that no one wants to trade; everyone is on the sidelines waiting to see what others will do first.
In this environment, even if there is an increase, it is likely to be a "dead cat bounce"—a weak and feeble rebound after a significant decline that cannot last. If you see a slight increase and chase after it, you may end up getting trapped at the high point of that small rebound.
