JPMorgan’s latest view on the gold price trajectory and trend should be defined as “still broadly bullish, sentiment has clearly turned cautious, and risk is skewed to the downside,” rather than a complete shift to being bearish.

In a research note released Friday, JPMorgan said that since the second half of 2025 it has continued to be bullish on gold and a range of other precious-metal assets, but demand in key areas for physical gold or gold ETFs will not be as strong as the firm previously expected. This will limit the upside in this year’s gold prices, with the price reaching $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter and $4,500 per ounce in the fourth quarter. Overall, JPMorgan’s latest view on the gold trajectory and trend can be summarized as “still broadly bullish, sentiment has clearly turned cautious, and risk is skewed to the downside,” rather than a complete shift to being bearish.

The firm added that the risk to its forecast is significantly skewed to the downside, given that if the data released for the remainder of this summer comes in hot, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s FOMC could announce rate hikes earlier than expected. For comparison, on June 9, JPMorgan—previously one of the most aggressive champions of the “gold bull market” since the second half of 2025—had also said it expected gold prices to rise to $6,000 by year-end.

On Friday, gold extended its recent rebound. After extremely weak nonfarm payrolls were released on Thursday, which reduced market expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes, spot gold rose about 1.2% on Friday to $4,170.30 per ounce, after hitting the highest level since June 23. So far, gold is up more than 2% on the week.

Full-year target cut from $6,000 to $4,500, with precious-metals bulls entering a “cautious phase”

High interest-rate expectations like those seen in June often weigh heavily on gold that does not generate cash returns, because investors tend to rotate toward fixed-income assets such as U.S. Treasuries that offer better returns.

Wall Street strategists remain constructive on gold’s outlook, mainly citing weaker nonfarm employment, expectations of a weaker dollar, falling U.S. Treasury yields, and a rebound in central-bank buying. To international financial giants such as Goldman Sachs, Barclays, and TD Securities, the sharp drop in gold recently looks more like a dramatic correction within a long-term bull-market trajectory rather than an indication that the long-term gold bull market has ended. They also emphasized that gold, which has been hovering around $3,900 to $4,000, is extremely close to the bottom of this correction cycle.