💥 BITCOIN IS WORTH ALMOST THE SAME AS IN 2021.
BUT THERE’S ONE DETAIL THAT ALMOST NOBODY IS LOOKING AT.
At first glance, the chart seems to say we’re repeating history.
Bitcoin’s market capitalization has returned to a zone very similar to the 2021–2022 cycle.
And that’s where many people start jumping to quick conclusions.
“Then the market is going to do the same thing.”
I’m not so sure.
Because the capitalization can look the same.
The context isn’t.
In 2021, much of the momentum was supported by interest rates near zero, abundant global liquidity, and strong speculative participation.
Today, the scenario is different.
There are spot ETFs that channel part of institutional demand; the market has a much more developed infrastructure; and the participation of companies and institutional investors is significantly higher than five years ago.
Does that mean Bitcoin can’t correct?
Not at all.
Corrections will continue to be part of the market.
But it makes me think that comparing this cycle with the previous one only based on market capitalization could be a mistake.
Because two markets can be worth almost the same… and yet be supported by completely different participants.
And that could change many things.
The speed of the rallies.
The depth of the corrections.
Or even the way the cycle unfolds.
That’s why, when I compare one market to another, I try to look at more than just price or capitalization.
I try to understand what’s driving that move.
Because charts show what happened.
The context helps interpret what could happen next.
💬 What do you think?
Will this cycle end up resembling 2021, or could the change in market participants make the story different?
BUT THERE’S ONE DETAIL THAT ALMOST NOBODY IS LOOKING AT.
At first glance, the chart seems to say we’re repeating history.
Bitcoin’s market capitalization has returned to a zone very similar to the 2021–2022 cycle.
And that’s where many people start jumping to quick conclusions.
“Then the market is going to do the same thing.”
I’m not so sure.
Because the capitalization can look the same.
The context isn’t.
In 2021, much of the momentum was supported by interest rates near zero, abundant global liquidity, and strong speculative participation.
Today, the scenario is different.
There are spot ETFs that channel part of institutional demand; the market has a much more developed infrastructure; and the participation of companies and institutional investors is significantly higher than five years ago.
Does that mean Bitcoin can’t correct?
Not at all.
Corrections will continue to be part of the market.
But it makes me think that comparing this cycle with the previous one only based on market capitalization could be a mistake.
Because two markets can be worth almost the same… and yet be supported by completely different participants.
And that could change many things.
The speed of the rallies.
The depth of the corrections.
Or even the way the cycle unfolds.
That’s why, when I compare one market to another, I try to look at more than just price or capitalization.
I try to understand what’s driving that move.
Because charts show what happened.
The context helps interpret what could happen next.
💬 What do you think?
Will this cycle end up resembling 2021, or could the change in market participants make the story different?