Buyers of Bitcoin (BTC) in the United States have clearly gone quiet. The Coinbase Premium Index, a gauge of Bitcoin demand in the U.S., has remained negative continuously since May 6, a period that marks the weakest stretch in more than a year.

This signal is important because it shows who is stepping back. When the premium is negative, it means American investors are paying to buy BTC below other markets. That helps answer why the price of Bitcoin is falling.

What does the Coinbase Premium say?

This index tracks the price spread between Coinbase in the U.S. and exchanges abroad. When the index is negative, it indicates demand for Bitcoin in the U.S. is falling. When the index rises, it means American buyers are leading the market.

The index is currently sitting below zero, with the premium remaining negative continuously, starting May 6. At that time, the Bitcoin price was about $81,429, and it has continued to stay negative for around eight weeks. This is the longest stretch since the beginning of 2025.

Want more token data? Subscribe to Harsh Notariya’s daily crypto newsletter here.

After that, Bitcoin’s spot price dropped to about $59,500—down roughly 27%—and has continued to decline.

Where does the money in Bitcoin go?

Weaker U.S. demand for Bitcoin aligns with major stock moves. Money from America isn’t just sitting there—it’s running into chip stocks.

The semiconductor index shows returns that outpace the S&P 500, reaching about 85 points this year, which is the biggest gap ever in the first half, according to data from Kobeissi. This performance has also surpassed the dot-com era’s peak in 2000.

US chip stocks are on a historic run: The semiconductor index, $SOX, has outperformed the S&P 500 by +85 percentage points year-to-date, on pace for the best half-year outperformance in history. This would exceed the previous record set during the Dot-Com Bubble in H1 2000 by… pic.twitter.com/Qdah3TVmgr

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 30, 2026

Meanwhile, chips have become the market leader. Semiconductors make up about 18% of the S&P 500 and have driven nearly 70% of 2026 earnings, based on published data. Micron is up about 300%, while SanDisk is up more than 760%.

This shift can be seen in investment flows. Since April, U.S. gold and Bitcoin ETF funds have lost about $12 billion, while ETF funds for the chip sector have received inflows of nearly $20 billion.

Retail investors appear to be rotating out of gold and Bitcoin into semiconductor stocks:Since April, US gold and Bitcoin ETFs have posted -$12 billion in cumulative outflows.Over the same period, US semiconductor ETFs have attracted +$20 billion in cumulative inflows.This… pic.twitter.com/VHuDTB0nyN

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 27, 2026

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the largest Bitcoin fund, led the historic outflows from ETFs in June—and this month has also been the worst since the spot ETF was launched.

A warning signal in January

This isn’t the first time demand for Bitcoin has disappeared in the U.S. this year; this pattern has happened once before.

Bitcoin’s premium turned negative around January 15, while BTC was trading around $95,583. But by February 24, Bitcoin had fallen to roughly $64,100.

This drop accounts for about 33% within 6 weeks. The downtrend of the latest cycle lasted longer than before and shows that demand in the U.S. has fallen again.

The conditions before panic sets in

However, there’s one point to watch regarding this shift in direction, because normally Bitcoin and Nasdaq tend to move in the same direction, with a correlation of about 0.46 over six months—meaning they usually rise or fall due to the same macro factors.

But this year, the two have begun to split apart. Although the correlation still exists: Bitcoin fell by about 33% in 2026, while the technology sector surged by more than 20% in the first half of the year.

This gap is caused by the chip sector, because semiconductors drive nearly 70% of market growth in 2026, so this tech rally is actually a rally in chip stocks. Therefore, an asset class like Bitcoin—which often moves in sync—is getting support from the segment that U.S. investors are buying.

That’s why separation is important—because when two asset pairs that have been correlated all along split by this much, the flow of capital from one side to the other is the simplest explanation.

What happens next

Bitcoin’s next move may depend on U.S. investors. If the premium remains negative and inflows into chip stocks continue, the price direction for BTC with the least resistance is downward. The pullback during January–February, down 33%, shows that BTC can still pull back more.

But if it flips back to positive, that would be an important first sign that domestic BTC demand is recovering. So as long as the signals don’t change, the same story from January still needs to be watched.