Arthur Hayes: The altcoin season has long begun, but you refuse to admit it; HYPE and SOL are the solid evidence.

BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes reveals the new normal of the 2025 market: ETF fund stickiness breaks the old rotation rules, and altcoin season is still present, but only for a few high-quality assets. (Background: Arthur Hayes warns that Monad could plummet by 99%: overvalued and low liquidity VC coins) (Background supplement: Monad has officially launched! $MON opening coin price performance, token economics, Coinbase public sale results... all in one place) Bitcoin has seen a turbulent drop from $126,000 over the past two months, and the altcoin season index has continued to decline, leaving many retail investors struggling with whether to sell their altcoins. In response, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes pointed out in a recent interview: if you are still asking where the altcoin season is, it’s because you haven’t bought into those that have risen. Traders feel the absence of a bull market because they are still using the old script from 2021, clinging to the broken copper and rotten iron of the last cycle. Hayes noted that the past standard script was BTC leading, ETH following, and finally, funds spilling over into high-risk small coins. However, the market situation in 2025 completely diverges from this curve. According to on-chain transaction data, established altcoins like XRP and ADA, which were extremely hot in 2021, remain stagnant even as Bitcoin hits new highs. The market shows that institutional funds refuse to distribute evenly; the rotation rules are no longer simply driven by emotions but are locked in on a few targets by precise risk control models. The spot ETF has built high walls, and funds no longer seep through freely. One of the most profound factors affecting the structure is the prevalence of ETFs. Research shows that ETFs lock funds in regulated custodial systems, creating high stickiness. Profits no longer flow from exchange wallets into various meme coins like in 2021, but remain within the fund structure, held long-term through passive allocation. As a result, fund flow has shifted from 'waterfall-like infiltration' to 'point-like jetting', with only projects that have clear fundamentals or receive endorsements from whales attracting traffic. Selective bull market: victory of elite assets. Hayes believes that 'the altcoin season has already happened, it’s just that retail investors haven't joined the right teams.' The clearest example is the decentralized derivatives platform Hyperliquid (HYPE): in September this year, its price climbed to $60, driven not by community hype but by real platform fee income and large off-market stockpiling. Hayes believes a similar trend is seen in Solana (SOL), which rose from a low of $7 (the 2023 low) to nearly $300, as the market reassesses the scarcity of efficient infrastructure based on price. These assets share common characteristics of verifiable cash flow, high technical thresholds, or deep liquidity, forming a stark contrast with purely narrative tokens. 2026 Outlook: Market logic enters an era of stock pickers. The crypto-friendly policies of the Trump administration have allowed more traditional investors to engage positively with crypto assets, but the playbook has been significantly upgraded. A Bitwise report indicates that future markets will be shorter, more intense, and focused on AI, RWA, or key infrastructure categories. Investors waiting for the old routines to replay face a harsh reality: no one will carry the banner for 'broken copper and rotten iron.' The era where anything you buy doubles is officially over; precise selection of targets will be the ticket to entry after 2026. Related reports: $30 billion stablecoin defense battle: Tether CEO fires back at Wall Street rating agencies and Arthur Hayes. Arthur Hayes firmly states: Bitcoin will double to $250,000 by the end of the year. Arthur Hayes: If Tether's Bitcoin and gold drop by 30%, USDT will be insolvent. 'Arthur Hayes: The altcoin season has long begun, but you refuse to admit it; HYPE and SOL are the solid evidence.' This article was first published in BlockTempo (one of the most influential blockchain news media).