📉 Attention to excessive optimism in BTC today

Despite the day's rise and the celebratory atmosphere, the medium and long-term view still shows fragility in the market structure.

In broader timeframes, the signals remain negative:

Short term: still under pressure

Medium term: clear downtrend

Long term: no signs of reversal

Isolated highs after strong drops are generally relief movements, not indicative of a trend change. Historically, these peaks function more as bull traps than as the start of a new up cycle.

As long as longer periods do not show signs of reversal, the main trend remains downward. Risk management and patience continue to be more important than being carried away by green candles.

This morning I mentioned that this mini rise could take BTC up to ~90k, but afterwards it is likely to return to the range of 85k, maintaining descending lows and highs. In January, we may have a bounce to relieve three months of decline, followed by renewed pressure in the next 2 to 3 months.