Four-Year Myth or Reality: Why Bitcoin is Writing a Brutal 70% Crash
Despite ongoing claims that market maturity has neutralized traditional patterns, Bitcoin is currently following its four-year halving cycle with eerie precision. Historically, Bitcoin peaked distinctly in the fourth quarters of 2017 and 2021, and this trajectory aligns perfectly with the historical highs expected in the fourth quarter of 2025. For professional market analysts, this cyclical symmetry indicates that the current distribution phase is not a random drop, but rather the beginning of a structural macro adjustment.
Data-driven predictions suggest that major bear market resets typically take about 365 days to reach exhaustion. Therefore, it is expected that there will not be a clear price bottom before the fourth quarter of 2026, marking the potential start of the subsequent four-year ascent. If historical pullbacks of around 70% repeat, Bitcoin is mathematically destined to bottom within the liquidity zone of $40,000 to $50,000. Smart money has already begun to shift; successful traders have liquidated significant positions to stay on the sidelines, waiting for this anticipated window. Before this sell-off occurs, the most viable strategy is to tactically short rebounds rather than accumulate too early. $BTC
