--

Overview
XRP presents one of the most fascinating divergences in crypto right now. Spot ETFs have seen 30 consecutive days of inflows totaling nearly $1 billion, yet price keeps falling. Institutions are accumulating through regulated vehicles while derivatives traders aggressively sell. One side will run out of ammunition. The question is which one.

---

🐋 What the Data Shows
- 30 straight days of ETF inflows since Nov 13 launch (zero redemption days)
- Total ETF inflows approaching $1B with assets under management at $1.18B
- Korean whales (Upbit) withdrawing XRP for first time since 2023 (classic accumulation)
- Spot taker CVD flipped to buy-dominant at these levels
- Leverage ratios dropped significantly, showing reduced speculative positioning
- Vanguard opened XRP ETF access to 50 million clients on Dec 2

---

📈 Technical Setup
Resistance: $2.00 (psychological), $2.10 (bullish confirmation), $2.35
Support: $1.90, $1.82 (Fibonacci floor), $1.40 (deep support)

RSI in the mid-30s approaching oversold territory. MACD shows bearish momentum but selling pressure is exhausting. Weekly 50-day MA still sloping up and providing dynamic support. The $1.82 Fibonacci level has held multiple tests.

---

🎯 Trade Scenarios

Scenario A: Support Holds (Bullish)
Entry Zone: $1.82 - $1.90
Target 1: $2.10
Target 2: $2.35
Stop Loss: $1.75 (below Fibonacci support)
Risk/Reward: Approximately 2.5:1 to first target

Scenario B: Support Breaks (Bearish)
If $1.82 breaks with volume, next major support is $1.40
Wait for confirmation before attempting longs
Could revisit accumulation zone from earlier in 2025

---

⚠️ Risks to Consider
- January 1, 2026 escrow unlock: 1 billion XRP releases (60-80% typically re-escrowed)
- Exchange inflows recently spiked to multi-year highs
- BTC correlation: If Bitcoin breaks below $85K, XRP follows regardless of its own fundamentals
- ETF flows can reverse quickly in risk-off environments
- Year-end liquidity is thin, increasing volatility

---

📅 Upcoming Catalysts
- RLUSD stablecoin expanding to Ethereum Layer 2s (Optimism, Base, Ink, Unichain)
- Vanguard advisor allocation cycles (quarterly reviews mean gradual capital deployment)
- CME Spot-Quoted XRP futures launched Dec 15 (more institutional access)
- Ripple National Trust Bank (OCC conditional approval received)

---

💡 Conclusion
The institutional vs derivatives divergence cannot persist forever. ETF buyers are patient allocators who rarely sell, while derivatives sellers eventually exhaust their positions. The $1.82 support is the line in the sand. A hold and reclaim of $2.00 opens the path to $2.35. A break below $1.82 with volume means step aside and wait for $1.40. Current sentiment (Fear and Greed at 16) suggests most of the panic selling may already be done.

This is a "wait for confirmation" setup rather than an aggressive entry. Let price tell you which scenario is playing out.

---

⚠️ Disclaimer
This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk appropriately. Cryptocurrency trading involves substantial risk of loss.

$XRP
{future}(XRPUSDT)