๐ Market Structure
Clear downtrend โ price is moving within a descending channel (lower highs and lows).
Each bounce is sold at the upper band of the channel.
No signal of a change in structure yet (no HH + HL).
๐ Current Price Status
Price is at the lower end of the channel.
Consolidation after a downward impulse โ typical bearish continuation or short technical rebound.
Current Zone:
~2.02โ2.05 USDT โ local support + demand reactions.
๐ข Key Levels
Support
2.049 โ local support (current reaction)
1.999 โ strong psychological support
1.951
1.878 โ lower demand zone (important!)
Resistance
2.099
2.125
2.201 โ key resistance / SโR flip.
Upper channel line (~2.20โ2.23)
๐ Stochastic RSI
Oscillator often in oversold territory.
Currently recovering from the low โ possible short rebound.
BUT: in a downtrend. The Stoch RSI is not a long-term signal.
โก๏ธ More likely a pullback, not a trend change.
๐ง Scenarios
๐ด Baseline scenario (most likely)
Bounce to:
2.09 โ 2.12
Rejection + further decline:
1.99
then 1.95 / 1.88
โก๏ธ Short at resistance levels in line with the trend.
๐ข Alternative scenario (less likely)
Breakout of 2.20 + close of the 1H candle above the channel
Retest from above
Then targets:
2.28
2.35โ2.40
โก๏ธ Only then can we talk about a change in structure.
