Today, Kweichow Moutai was affected by the "control policy", gapping up at the open; although it closed with a gain, it formed a large bearish candle, ending a three-day streak of gains. The stock king has fallen from its peak of 2437 in 2021, down for 5 years, with a decline of over 40%, almost halving in value. Although there aren't many retail investors involved, they are mainly resilient value investors huddling together for warmth, but the 5-year decline is indeed quite terrifying.

First, let's talk about the "control policy" of the stock king. Short-term measures: by December 2025, all Moutai products will stop being distributed to dealers to alleviate their burden during the tight financial period at the end of the year and to prevent panic selling. Mid to long-term reform: plans to significantly reduce the quotas for non-standard products like zodiac wine and vintage wine in 2026, reducing the supply of products that drag down channel profits from the source. Future increments will focus on the three core products: Feitian Moutai, Moutai 1935, and premium Moutai, to stabilize the mainstream price range.

The above news can also be understood as Moutai controlling the quantity of Feitian, and the price has rebounded to 1,580. However, in terms of stock price, I feel that the fundamentals have not changed much, which should also be the reason why today the stock king opened high and fell all the way down.

So, is Guizhou Moutai going to rise?

1. Valuation has returned to historical lows.

The current dynamic PE is about 20 times, PB 8 times, both lower than the past ten years' central levels (PE 30-35 times, PB 12 times), and is in the 'undervalued zone.' If it returns to a PE of 30 times in the future, it corresponds to a net profit of 100 billion yuan in 2025, with a market value of 3 trillion yuan, leaving over 45% upside from the current price.

2. The consumption sector still belongs to the first tier. Sales and inventory pressure are controllable. During the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, the wholesale price stabilized at 2,700 yuan, with channel inventory below 1 month, significantly better than the industry average of 2-3 months; the risk of price inversion mainly squeezes distributor profits, with limited impact on the financial statements of listed companies.

3. Policy risk is marginally weakening. Concerns about consumption tax reform, alcohol bans, etc., have already been reflected in the stock price over the past year; Moutai's 94% gross profit margin and strong brand power give it the ability to pass on costs, making policy impacts relatively controllable.

In summary, if Moutai drops again in the first half of 2026, it feels like it will have bottomed out. When the stock king rises, it is still quite scary.

If the real estate industry can recover, Moutai's stock fundamentals should become attractive immediately.

Speaking of real estate, it reminds me of Vanke, a typical representative of the transition of China's real estate from the golden age to the 'black iron age.'

Although Vanke proposed the slogan of 'survive' as early as 2018, it was seen as a warning during the industry's rising period.

Subsequently, the Chinese real estate market entered a deep adjustment period, but Vanke's leverage remains, and there has been no reduction in investment in the real estate industry. Thus, it still faces severe challenges such as declining sales and profit pressure.

Previously, Shenzhen Metro was still providing support, but now Shenzhen Metro is letting it marketize. The latest 2 billion in debt is estimated to be impossible to fulfill. Now I truly hope the real estate sector can recover so that everyone can have a better life.

In recent days, BTC has also shown no signs of improvement, hovering around $90,000. In 2026, BTC's situation is likely to be difficult as well.