ANALYSIS #ETH ON 06/24: THE PUMP TO 1,700 COULD BE A TRAP BEFORE DIPPING BACK TO 1,605
ETH has yet to confirm a reversal. On multiple time frames, the larger structure still leans range-bearish, with price hovering near the short-term bottom of 1,641–1,665. Above, there's a thick supply/FVG cluster at 1,694–1,710, and deeper at 1,720–1,734. This is a zone where MM can easily pull the price up to stop out shorts, lure in breakout longs, and then dump back down.
The short-term view prioritizes not shorting right at 1,66x, but waiting for a price retracement to the 1,694–1,710 zone. If ETH wicks up to this level but closes M15/M30 below 1,680, that’s a sign of a bull trap. At that point, a better setup is to short 1,694–1,710, adding smaller positions if it wicks higher to 1,720–1,734. SL at 1,748. TP1 at 1,655–1,641, TP2 at 1,605, TP3 at 1,575–1,550.
If ETH doesn’t retrace and breaks below 1,641, it’s not advisable to chase shorts. Wait for a retest of 1,645–1,655 to fail before continuing to short, targeting 1,605–1,550. If price sweeps down to 1,633–1,641 and then closes M30 above 1,658–1,667, that’s a bear trap; at that point, it could be a scalp long back to 1,688–1,700, but this is counter-trend and not prioritized.
MEDIUM-TERM VIEW: ETH resembles the final phase of Markdown / the start of an Accumulation test, not yet in Markup. The critical zone is 1,506–1,550. If this zone holds, ETH may continue to accumulate in a wide range of 1,506–1,849, after which it could have a chance to reclaim 1,930–2,000. If D/3D closes below 1,506, the accumulation model fails, with a target drop opening up to 1,450–1,380.
ETH has yet to confirm a reversal. On multiple time frames, the larger structure still leans range-bearish, with price hovering near the short-term bottom of 1,641–1,665. Above, there's a thick supply/FVG cluster at 1,694–1,710, and deeper at 1,720–1,734. This is a zone where MM can easily pull the price up to stop out shorts, lure in breakout longs, and then dump back down.
The short-term view prioritizes not shorting right at 1,66x, but waiting for a price retracement to the 1,694–1,710 zone. If ETH wicks up to this level but closes M15/M30 below 1,680, that’s a sign of a bull trap. At that point, a better setup is to short 1,694–1,710, adding smaller positions if it wicks higher to 1,720–1,734. SL at 1,748. TP1 at 1,655–1,641, TP2 at 1,605, TP3 at 1,575–1,550.
If ETH doesn’t retrace and breaks below 1,641, it’s not advisable to chase shorts. Wait for a retest of 1,645–1,655 to fail before continuing to short, targeting 1,605–1,550. If price sweeps down to 1,633–1,641 and then closes M30 above 1,658–1,667, that’s a bear trap; at that point, it could be a scalp long back to 1,688–1,700, but this is counter-trend and not prioritized.
MEDIUM-TERM VIEW: ETH resembles the final phase of Markdown / the start of an Accumulation test, not yet in Markup. The critical zone is 1,506–1,550. If this zone holds, ETH may continue to accumulate in a wide range of 1,506–1,849, after which it could have a chance to reclaim 1,930–2,000. If D/3D closes below 1,506, the accumulation model fails, with a target drop opening up to 1,450–1,380.