As the upward momentum slows at the beginning of the week, Dogecoin (DOGE) has dropped 5.5% during the day, falling back near recent lows. Some analysts believe that if the price can stabilize at this level, DOGE may experience a significant rebound in the short to medium term.
Key support is being tested again; can the path to $1 be restarted?
On Thursday, DOGE retraced to the $0.136–0.138 range following the market's correction. Since the adjustments in the fourth quarter, its price has fallen about 50% from its peak and has been oscillating between $0.130–0.155 in recent weeks.
Analyst Trader Tardigrade pointed out that DOGE is currently testing a key ascending trend line that has extended since 2022, which has historically often become the starting point for significant subsequent rises:
After the first test, DOGE rose 87% within 8 weeks;
After the second test, the increase exceeded 210% within 10 weeks;
After the tests in the third quarter of 2024, DOGE surged 442% in 14 weeks, reaching an annual high of $0.48;
If this backtest can successfully hold, the analyst believes DOGE is expected to move towards the $1 direction, with a potential mid-term increase of up to 610%.
Technical indicators are warming up, and short-term rebound signals are emerging.
The trader also observed that DOGE's daily MACD has shown a bullish crossover, indicating that the trend may shift from decline to rise. Similar signals have led prices to create new highs in the second and third quarters of this year.
Other market observers have also put forward structural reasons for a short-term bullish outlook:
In terms of chart patterns, DOGE may be forming a 'descending wedge' bullish reversal structure since October last year, which could look towards $0.20 (potential increase of 60%) after breaking the upper resistance. At the same time, the price has touched the historical demand area at the weekly level again; if it can find support in this area, it is expected to rebound and test $0.30 (increase of about 115%).
As of the time of writing, DOGE is quoted at $0.137, down 8% over the week. The market is closely monitoring the performance of the current key support area, which may determine whether DOGE can initiate another strong rebound.
