The a16z crypto team released its 2026 trend forecast, covering 17 important observations on stablecoins, RWA tokenization, AI agents, privacy security, prediction markets, and more, revealing the future development direction of the crypto industry. This article is derived from a piece authored by a16z and compiled, translated, and written by Foresight News. (Background: a16z predicted that in 2026, four major trends would be announced first) (Background Supplement: a16z cryptocurrency heavyweight report: 2025 marks the explosive year for institutions, stablecoin transaction volume rivals Visa, bidding farewell to adolescence and entering adulthood) This week, a16z released its annual "Significant Ideas" report, with insights from partners across its Apps, American Dynamism, Bio, Crypto, Growth, Infra, and Speedrun teams. The following are 17 observations from several partners in the a16z crypto space (including a few special guest writers) regarding industry trends in 2026 — covering topics such as intelligent agents and artificial intelligence, stablecoins, tokenization and finance, privacy and security, extending to prediction markets, SNARKs, and other applications, and finally discussing the direction of industry construction. Regarding stablecoins, RWA tokenization, payments, and finance 1. Higher quality and more flexible stablecoin deposit and withdrawal channels Last year, stablecoin transaction volume is estimated to have reached $46 trillion, continually setting historical peaks. Intuitively, this scale is more than 20 times the transaction volume of PayPal and nearly 3 times that of Visa, one of the largest payment networks globally, and is rapidly approaching the transaction volume of the Automated Clearing House (ACH) in the United States (ACH is the electronic network for processing financial transactions such as direct deposits in the U.S.). Nowadays, sending a stablecoin takes less than 1 second, with transaction fees of less than 1 cent. However, the unresolved core issue is: how to connect these "digital dollars" with the financial systems people use daily — that is, the "deposit/withdrawal channels" for stablecoins. A new generation of startups is filling this gap, pushing stablecoins to integrate with more widespread payment systems and local currencies: some companies use cryptographic proof technology to allow users to privately exchange their local currency balances for digital dollars; others integrate regional networks to facilitate interbank transfers using QR codes, real-time payment channels, and other functionalities; and other companies are building truly interoperable global wallet layers and card issuing platforms that allow users to spend stablecoins directly at everyday merchants. These solutions collectively expand the participation scope of the digital dollar economy and may accelerate stablecoins to become mainstream payment tools. As the deposit and withdrawal channels gradually mature, with digital dollars directly integrated into local payment systems and merchant tools, new application scenarios will emerge: cross-border workers can receive payments instantly, merchants can receive global dollars without needing a bank account, and applications can complete value settlements in real time with global users. At that time, stablecoins will completely transform from "niche financial tools" to "the foundational settlement layer for the internet." — Jeremy Zhang, a16z Crypto Engineering Team 2. Reconstructing RWA tokenization and stablecoins with "crypto-native thinking" Currently, banks, fintech companies, and asset management institutions show strong interest in "bringing traditional assets on-chain," involving U.S. stocks, commodities, indices, and other traditional assets. However, as more traditional assets go on-chain, their tokenization processes often fall into the "reification trap" — limited to the existing forms of real-world assets, failing to leverage the advantages of crypto-native characteristics. Synthetic derivatives like perpetual futures not only provide deeper liquidity but are also easier to implement. Meanwhile, the leverage mechanism of perpetual contracts is easy to understand, making it, in my opinion, the crypto-native derivative with the highest "product-market fit." Furthermore, emerging market stocks are among the asset classes most suitable for "perpetualization" (the liquidity of some stocks' "zero-day expiry options" markets has already surpassed that of the spot market, making their perpetualization a highly valuable attempt). This is essentially a choice between "fully on-chain vs. tokenization," but in any case, in 2026, we will see more "crypto-native" RWA tokenization solutions. Similarly, stablecoins entered the mainstream market in 2025, with outstanding issuance continuing to grow; in 2026, the stablecoin space will shift from "pure tokenization" to "innovative issuance models." Currently, stablecoins lacking a robust credit infrastructure are akin to "narrow banks" — holding only high-security specific liquid assets. While the narrow bank model is reasonable, it is unlikely to become a core pillar of the on-chain economy in the long term. Currently, several new asset management institutions, asset managers, and protocols are exploring "on-chain lending based on off-chain collateral," but these loans often start off-chain before being tokenized. I believe that in this model, the value of tokenization is quite limited, serving only users who have entered the on-chain ecosystem. Therefore, debt assets should be "initiated directly on-chain," rather than "initiated off-chain and then tokenized" — on-chain initiation can reduce loan service costs and backend infrastructure costs while improving accessibility. Although compliance and standardization remain challenges, developers are actively working to resolve these issues. — Guy Wuollet, General Partner in a16z Crypto 3. Stablecoins drive upgrades of banking ledgers, unlocking new payment scenarios Most of the software currently used by banks is almost "unrecognizable" to modern developers: in the 1960s and 70s, banks were early adopters of large software systems; in the 80s and 90s, the second generation of core banking software emerged (such as Temenos' GLOBUS and Infosys' Finacle). However, this software has gradually aged, and update speed is extremely slow — nowadays, the banking industry (especially core ledger systems, which record deposits, collateral, and other liabilities) still often relies on large machines running COBOL programming, utilizing batch processing file interfaces instead of APIs. The vast majority of global assets are stored in these "decades-old core ledgers." Although these systems have been validated through long-term practice, received regulatory approval, and are deeply integrated into complex banking business scenarios, they also severely hinder innovation: adding key functionalities like real-time payments (RTP) can take months or even years, while also needing to tackle layers of technical debt and regulatory complexities. The value of stablecoins is reflected here: over the past few years, stablecoins have not only achieved "product-market fit" and entered the mainstream, but in 2025, traditional finance (TradFi) institutions "fully embraced" stablecoins. Stablecoins, tokenized deposits, tokenized government bonds, and on-chain bonds enable banks, fintech companies, and financial institutions to develop new products and serve new customers — more importantly, without forcing these institutions to reconstruct their "aging yet stable-running" legacy systems. Stablecoins provide financial institutions with a "low-risk innovation path." — Sam Broner 4. The internet will become the "new generation of banks" With the widespread adoption of AI agents, more business activities will be "automatically completed in the background" (rather than relying on user clicks), which means that the "method of value (currency) flow" must change accordingly. In a world where "systems act by intention" (rather than step-by-step instructions) — for example, when AI agents identify needs, fulfill obligations, or trigger results to automatically transfer funds — value flow must possess "the same speed and freedom as current information flow." And blockchain, smart contracts, and new protocols are precisely...

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