Brothers, this news belongs to the regulatory level of a nuclear bomb.
Because the CFTC gave four key players on the same day:
Polymarket (the largest on-chain prediction market)
PredictIt (traditional prediction market)
Gemini (leading exchange)
LedgerX/MIAX (licensed derivatives clearing house)
All issued:
No-Action Letter = no enforcement action = deemed compliant under specific conditions
What does it mean?
For the first time, the U.S. government clearly loosens regulations on on-chain prediction markets + binary options + derivative data reporting obligations.
Regulation is no longer a threat, but:
"You can operate, we won't touch you."
Brothers, the impact of this news is much greater than many people think.
**1. What is a 'No-Action Letter'? In one sentence:
→ Legally not allowed, but regulators say 'I won't catch you.'**
This is the most special weapon in the US regulatory system.
The legal meaning of No-Action Letter:
Not a license
Not a license
Not an exemption
But regulators promise: We will not enforce the law, we will not accuse you of illegal activities.
In the US financial regulatory system:
What is harder to achieve than 'approval' is 'allowing you to experiment freely.'
CFTC's attitude this time is very clear:
**Predictive markets, on-chain derivatives, binary trading
We do not block your development.**
2. Why did CFTC suddenly release? Because the US is paving the way for a 'new regulatory framework for crypto' in 2025.
Have you noticed what has happened in US regulation in the last 7 days:
① SEC approves DTCC to custody stocks and government bonds on-chain.
On-chain securities legalization.
② CFTC withdraws the complex regulations on 'actual delivery' of digital assets from 2020.
Preparing to rewrite regulatory rules.
③ Gemini receives CFTC approval to provide binary event contracts.
The legal status of predictive markets is starting to emerge.
④ Coinbase is about to launch tokenized stocks + predictive markets.
The industry is entering a new product cycle.
⑤ Bank CEOs collectively consult with the Senate on the comprehensive crypto bill.
The US wants to write crypto into the legal system.
⑥ The Federal Reserve Chairman, Treasury, CFTC, and SEC are all speaking in sync.
This is a coordinated action.
Brothers, this is not a coincidence, this is:
**The US is integrating crypto, derivatives, predictive markets, RWA
All included in the next generation financial system.**
**3. There are two key points in this release:
① Data compliance exemption
② Third-party clearing license**
These two points are the most painful for the industry.
① Allow not meeting some data recording requirements = allowing innovation to precede regulatory frameworks.
Previous requirements:
Every binary option
Every swap
Every on-chain derivative
All must be reported to SDR (Swap Data Repository).
This is fatal because:
On-chain transactions cannot be reported in traditional formats at all.
Today, CFTC said:
"You don’t need to report, we won’t catch you."
This is the first time US regulators have acknowledged:
On-chain derivatives are not equivalent to traditional derivatives.
② Allow clearing contracts through third-party clearing members.
This is equivalent to saying:
**Predictive market contracts, on-chain options,
Can use traditional Wall Street clearing structures.**
This is a huge breakthrough because:
Polymarket does not have to bear the clearing obligations.
Gemini can transfer on-chain derivatives into the DCO system.
LedgerX can integrate on-chain contracts with traditional markets.
This means:
On-chain derivatives will have institutional-level liquidity.
**4. The real significance behind this:
Predictive markets and on-chain derivatives are starting to be legalized**
The US has always been very conservative towards predictive markets,
But now the attitude has changed:
"You go first, we observe."
Why the sudden change?
Because the US has discovered:
**Predictive markets are the most effective tool for collecting real data.
More accurate than polls, more accurate than the media, more accurate than the government.**
And on-chain derivatives are:
A risk liquidity carrier faster than CME.
The US will not give up this technology.
Five, what does this mean for the crypto market? Huge impact
I give you the 7 most direct conclusions:
① Predictive markets will become the 'new track champion' in the crypto world.
Polymarket will become:
On-chain political, sports, and social event pricing centers.
② Coinbase's predictive market will receive policy endorsement.
To be released on December 17.
③ On-chain binary trading will be legalized, and retail investors will become data providers instead of gamblers.
Binary contracts will not be banned.
④ The US is paving the way for the 'on-chain financial system.'
This is a big puzzle of RWA + derivatives + prediction + tokenized stocks.
⑤ CFTC is integrating crypto into the traditional regulatory framework, paving the way for institutional funds.
The transaction will grow a hundredfold.
⑥ Crypto derivatives will officially connect with Wall Street.
Clearing members = funding channels opened.
⑦ This represents the first time the crypto industry has gained a 'regulatory tolerance experimental zone.'
No-Action Letter = develop first, regulate later.
Six, my conclusions
Brothers, I will tell you the most critical judgment:
This is the first 'quasi-legalization' for on-chain prediction and on-chain derivatives in the US.
My judgment is very clear:
1) Predictive markets will become the next super narrative in crypto.
2) On-chain binary options will become retail traffic entry points.
3) Coinbase's predictive market will bring a new wave of user explosion.
4) The US is accelerating the integration of crypto into mainstream regulatory systems.
5) The valuation system will be repriced: the derivatives track will soar.
6) This is the Web3 version of 'financial democratization.'
7) The bull market narrative for 2025 will include: predictive markets + on-chain derivatives
In one sentence:
Today is not about regulatory easing; it is the formal recognition of 'on-chain finance has arrived.'
💬
Brothers:
Do you think the new crypto narrative in 2025 will be 'predictive markets + on-chain binary + event trading'? $BTC
