The impact of last night's interest rate cut was small, yet ETH suddenly collapsed, falling below 3250! Countless people were liquidated overnight, and the market was in chaos. Do you think it’s as simple as the data falling short of expectations? Today, I want to unveil the hidden logic behind this round of plummeting prices and tell you: will ETH continue to drop to 3070, or will it stage a comeback? Should retail investors escape or buy the dip?
News perspective
From last night until now, OG whales have increased their long positions by nearly 40,000 ETH, with a total scale approaching 400 million USD! Note that this address precisely laid out 500 million USD in BTC short positions before the big drop on October 11, earning nearly 100 million. Now, they are once again heavily betting on ETH, with the average price rising to 3177 USD. What does this mean? Whales are accumulating at low levels, brewing the next big market trend. And last night's crash is likely a classic method of shaking out positions to accumulate—first killing the bulls, then pulling up!
Technical analysis
Currently, ETH has broken the critical support at 3250, and the rebound has faced resistance multiple times around 3400, forming a triple top pressure. The MACD has a dead cross below water, and the volume continues to shrink, with sell orders significantly outweighing buy orders. All data points to a bearish trend. Strong support below is in the range of 3070-3100, while a more frightening strong support is at 2905. If 3250 cannot be regained, the market is likely to continue to test 3070. But be careful! The main force's hanging orders at the bottom show a positive ratio, indicating that large funds are quietly picking up near 3220, which is a sign of a rebound, or is it a trap to lure in buyers?
My opinion
I believe that ETH will oscillate between 3070 and 3250 in the short term, with the average long position of the whales at 3177 being the current oscillation center. If it breaks below 3070, the trend will turn bearish, targeting 2905; if it can stabilize above 3250, there is hope for a renewed upward trend. Retail investors should avoid blindly chasing shorts or bottom fishing! The true directional signals are hidden in the changes in volume and the movements of large positions over the last two days. (If you want to layout in advance and know the specific points, I will announce them in the chat room.)
For novices, the most important thing now is: do not panic sell, and do not go all in on bottom fishing. Keep a close eye on the two key levels of 3070 and 3250; whichever side breaks through, follow that side. A smarter approach is to follow me; I will provide real-time alerts in the chat room about whale movements and changes in main force orders, as these are the true spoilers that determine the next wave of explosive rise or crash.
In the market, the most important thing is not to predict every wave, but to ensure that you are always on the boat. The tide of liquidity will eventually lift all real value boats. Follow Hongcai and participate in every attack from Hongcai! Hongcai will announce the specific entry times and real-time news every day at the God of Wealth's home! #ETH走势分析 $ETH
