The cryptocurrency market is not a casino, but most people enter the market with a gambling mentality, and the results are predictable.
I remember my first encounter with the cryptocurrency contract, when I was suddenly washed out by a sharp drop, losing half a month's profits in ten minutes. That lesson made me realize one truth: in this market, surviving is a hundred times more important than making quick money.
Now, I still insist on trading with a 5% initial position principle, which is not only a respect for the market but also a struggle against my own greed. Today, what I want to share is not a 'get rich quick' secret, but a set of strategies that allow ordinary traders to survive in the market for the long term.
1 Position management: The art of counterintuitiveness.
True rolling positions are never about aggressively going all in. Those who boast on social media about making big money with a single bet are either frauds or gamblers who will eventually face liquidation.
The life-and-death line of the first position is 5% of total capital. If you have 1000U in principal, never exceed 50U for the first order. It may sound conservative, but it allows you to have capital to turn things around in extreme market conditions.
My personal trading is more cautious: first position 3%, only considering adding to the position in batches after floating profits exceed 50%, and the total position will never exceed 20% of the principal. This means that even if a single judgment is wrong, the loss remains within a controllable range.
When the market is highly volatile, I will initiate the "three-step scaling" strategy: initial position for trial and error, scaling up on floating profit, and confirmation of breakthroughs. But the crucial step is: the third time adding to the position must be accompanied by on-chain data verification to avoid falling into the trap of being lured into buying.
2 Stop-loss discipline: Leave yourself an exit.
Stop losses are not an admission of error, but a way to set a cost for errors. Many beginners fail not because of poor judgment, but because they cannot accept "paper losses" turning into "actual losses."
My principle is: no single trade's loss should exceed 2% of the total capital. This means that even if I have five consecutive stop losses, I still have 90% of my capital to fight again.
In terms of specific operations, I set a stop-loss point at a price range of 0.8%, which is the normal fluctuation range for most mainstream cryptocurrencies, avoiding being shaken out due to market noise. More importantly, once a stop loss is set, it is like signing a contract with the devil—non-negotiable.
From 1 to 3 AM is a window when Asian players are fatigued and European and American players have not fully taken over, often leading to sudden spikes and drops. Therefore, I am accustomed to setting automatic take-profit and stop-loss orders during this time without manual intervention.
3 Trend following: Understand the wind direction before setting sail.
The biggest risk in the crypto world is not price fluctuations, but that you don't really know what is happening in the market. Trend-following trading is the only reliable way for ordinary people to survive.
I mainly rely on EMA (Exponential Moving Average) to judge trend direction. When the short-term EMA is above the long-term EMA, I only consider going long or watching; conversely, I only consider going short or holding. This simple rule has helped me avoid countless "bottom-fishing" traps.
The "golden spider" and "dead spider" patterns of moving averages are worth paying special attention to. When the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages are interwoven and diverging upwards (golden spider), it is often a bullish signal; conversely, it is a bearish warning. But remember, these signals will fail during sideways fluctuations; one must wait for a clear trend.
For beginners, BTC and ETH are the barometers of the entire crypto market and are better contract trading targets. BTC, as the market leader, has the most stable performance; ETH, due to its large ecosystem, has become the barometer for altcoin trends.
4 Mindset management: Combatting human weaknesses.
Trading is essentially a battle of mindsets. I have seen traders with top-notch technical analysis fail miserably due to mindset imbalance, and also players with average skills who achieve stable profits through strong mindsets.
"If I have two consecutive stop losses, I immediately shut down for the day.” This is my iron rule. Stop losses are part of trading, but consecutive stop losses often mean that your state or judgment is out of sync with market rhythm. At this point, the best choice is to leave the screen and let your brain reset.
Another fatal mistake is the "revenge trading" mentality. After losing a trade, rushing to recover losses by increasing positions often leads to greater losses. The gambler's mentality is the number one killer in the crypto contract world.
It's easier to lose balance when making profits. After a few successful trades, it’s easy to develop the illusion that "I am a genius," starting to break existing discipline, increasing positions, and ultimately returning profits along with the principal to the market.
5 Steady winning logic: The survival rules for retail investors.
Long-term profitability in the crypto world relies not on magical indicators, but on a complete survival system.
Only earn money within your understanding. If others profit from MACD, you can't replicate it; if others profit from on-chain data analysis, you can't keep up either. Perfecting familiar patterns is more practical than learning 100 techniques.
Give up the illusion of catching every wave. 90% of market fluctuations are "noise"; there may only be one or two truly worthwhile opportunities in a week. Less trading can actually lead to fewer mistakes.
Calculate the profit-loss ratio before opening a position. If a trade has a potential profit of 100U and a potential loss of 200U, no matter how enticing it is, do not touch it. My personal bottom line is a profit-loss ratio of at least 2:1, meaning the potential gain must be more than twice the risk to be worth entering.
Regularly withdraw profits. When total profits reach a certain level, I will force myself to withdraw the principal and part of the profits, leaving only the "profit margin" in the market to continue operating. This is not only risk control but also a positive psychological incentive.
Conclusion: There are no myths in the crypto world, only discipline.
The story of a hundredfold return in twelve days is very moving, but more people lost everything in these twelve days. I always believe that the key to making a profit in the crypto world is not technology, but mindset and discipline.
Before every trade, I ask myself three questions: Does this trade conform to the trend? Where is the stop loss set? Is the profit-loss ratio reasonable? Only when all three answers are clear will I press the confirm button.
Remember, the market is never short of opportunities; it lacks the capital and patience to survive in the market long-term. As a trader, your task is not to seize every opportunity, but to grab those you can truly control.
The martial arts manual has been presented, but whether one can profit ultimately depends on execution. On the road of cryptocurrency, may we all live long enough to witness the next bull market. Follow Xiang Ge to learn more first-hand information and precise points about cryptocurrency, becoming your guide in the crypto world; learning is your greatest wealth!#ETH走势分析 #特朗普加密新政 $ETH
