I am Qi He, and tonight I'm focused on the ETH market. Given the recent U.S. news, I feel it is necessary to quickly chat with everyone. The market seems to be rising, but a key signal has already lit up the “yellow light”!
News front: Pouring a cup of "wake-up call"
Let’s take another look at the recently released consumer confidence data from the United States. Confidence has slightly increased, but the report repeatedly emphasizes that "overall sentiment remains cautious" and "high prices are a major pressure." This indicates that the average person's wallet is still tight, and confidence in the economy is not solid.
This macro-level cautious sentiment will directly affect the risk appetite of large funds. As a high-risk asset, cryptocurrencies will see a discount in the willingness to chase prices when external uncertainty increases. This provides an external reason for a possible market correction.
Technical aspect: Behind the rise hides a signal of 'betrayal'
From the hourly chart, the ETH price is indeed still climbing, the trend line looks good. However! Please shift your attention to the MACD indicator below, those two lines are clearly above the 0 axis but have already declined, and are about to form a 'death cross'!
This is called 'top divergence' in technical analysis, a strong warning signal of waning upward momentum. The resistance level at 3260 is like a solid city gate; given the current 'inflated' upward strength, it will be very difficult to break through at once.
Personal opinion from Qihe:
The possibility of a direct violent surge tonight to attack 3260 is smaller than the possibility of pulling back to the key support level below.
The market needs a healthy correction to digest short-term profit-taking and confirm the validity of the support below. We should first focus on the key level of 3100; if this level cannot hold, the stronger support around 2980 will become the next target for bears. Follow Qihe, + chat room to avoid pitfalls.
Remember one thing: in the market, surviving is a thousand times more important than making a quick buck.
The market will not rise straight to the sky; every deep squat is to jump higher. But the question is, is this a 'deep squat' or 'lying down'? Tonight's trend may very well set the tone for the coming week. I have already seen several subtle market languages that most people overlook, which may hint at the true intentions of the main force.
I am Qihe, an analyst who just wants to speak the truth. If you don’t want to run naked in the midst of wild fluctuations and want to understand these market cryptic messages, follow Qihe, + chat room to avoid pitfalls, and get the first-hand breakdown of subsequent capital movements, seizing every opportunity to make money! Perhaps this is where the real show begins; in our Qihe village, let’s keep an eye on it together.
