In 2015, when Bitcoin fell below $200, I emptied my savings to enter the market. At that time, I couldn't even fully recognize the exchange interface, but I firmly remembered my mentor's words: "The market specializes in treating smart people; surviving is more important than making quick money."
Four painful consensus from eight years of pitfalls
Rapid declines and slow rises are a sickle, while slow declines and rapid rises are opportunities.
The downward trend after a surge is like a dull knife cutting flesh; instead, it is a signal for market cleaning. I remember in 2020 when the DEFI bubble burst, UNI fell from $8 to $2.5, and I built my position in batches to get to $40.
What should be escaped is the massive sell-off after a daily doubling; that is a signal of the dealer flipping the table.
Trading volume speaks; the quietest market is the most dangerous.
The peak of a bull market is not when everyone is discussing frantically, but when new investors start showing profit charts while trading volume quietly shrinks.
Just like when Dogecoin exploded in 2021, the Twitter hype set records, but on-chain trading volume declined for a week straight, and after I liquidated, the price halved within three days.
The bottom is not guessed, but ground out.
In a bear market, a daily surge of over 30% is a trap; the real bottom is often accompanied by two weeks of continuous shrinking sideways movement.
When Bitcoin consolidated at $3200 in 2018, I invested $100 daily, and after six months, I controlled my cost to below $4000.
Abandon the "breakthrough" mentality to see the situation clearly.
I once was obsessed with technical indicators, but later realized that candlesticks are shadows of emotions. The dealer fears two types of people: those who dare to pick up bloody chips during a crash and those who are willing to take profits in three stages during a surge.
Last year, SOL crashed from $260 to $80; I added to my position every time it dropped 20%, and when it rebounded to $150, I sold in batches, with profits exceeding those who held on to the end.
Now I have a villa in Xixi, Hangzhou, but I still use a $3000 assembled computer—not to appear poor, but to understand that this industry always needs an "outsider's" perspective.
The most brutal truth in the crypto world: when you think you have gained insight, it is often the eve of a crisis; when you admit that you don't understand, you are truly close to the door.
I used to stumble alone in the dark; now the light is in my hands.
The light is always on; will you follow? $BTC
