A few days ago, I received a message from a fan: “Teacher, I invested half a year's salary to buy at the bottom, and now I'm down 20%. Should I add more?” When I looked at the holding time, it happened to be the day everyone was crazily spreading that 'certain key price is the iron bottom'—isn't this a typical scene of the 'bottom guessing hero' flipping over?

Having done crypto market analysis for 8 years, the most magical scene I've ever seen is: when the market drops, the entire network is filled with 'masters of precise bottom measurement'; as soon as retail investors follow in, it immediately drops below the so-called 'safety line'. Just talking about the second round of adjustments, from everyone shouting 'certain integer level is stable' to 'the next support must hold', there are always people rushing in to be the 'bag holder', and what happens? The support level is as fragile as paper, and the trapped positions pile up higher than mountains.

Here I must highlight my core viewpoint: bottoms are never guessed; they are 'voted' by the market with money. Those who claim they can accurately calculate the bottom are either lucky to guess right once or trying to fleece you – if they really had that ability, they would have quietly made a fortune already, and wouldn't be earnestly advising you to buy at the bottom?

Don't want to be trapped? First, understand these 3 'true bottom' signals

I never oppose buying the dip; on the contrary, I believe the bottom is an opportunity to make big money, but the premise is to 'wait for the signal'. Based on my experiences in several major bottom markets, a true bottom must have these three characteristics; missing any one of them means you shouldn't act:

The first signal is volume stabilization. What does volume mean? It means that during a downtrend, a big bullish candle suddenly appears, with trading volume exceeding the average of the past three days by more than 30%, and for the next three days, it doesn't drop below the lowest point of that bullish candle. After a significant drop last year, this is the signal I saw to enter the market, and it rose 35% in the following half month – money is the most honest; when the market is down, no one dares to buy, but suddenly big money enters to support the bottom, that is a reliable signal.

The second signal is a double bottom structure + consolidation. Simply having volume is not enough; you need to look at the pattern. For example, when the price drops to a certain level and rebounds, if it doesn't break the previous low during the correction, forming a 'W' shape, that is a double bottom. More critically, after a double bottom, there should be at least two weeks of consolidation, with fluctuations not exceeding 10%. Why consolidate? The main force is accumulating positions! Before that 70% surge last year, the market consolidated for a whole month, and many people complained about the wait and left; when it finally surged, they regretted it.

The third signal is a reversal in sentiment. Open up the community, and if it's still full of 'buying the dip' and 'full position' calls, then it’s definitely not a bottom; when everyone becomes silent, and some even say 'never touch it again', that’s when the opportunity arises. I have a little trick: look at the 'long-short ratio' on mainstream platforms. When the short ratio exceeds 70% and doesn’t decrease for three consecutive days, it’s basically the sentiment bottom.

Lastly, let me say something from the bottom of my heart.

Many people always think about making money from the 'fish head', believing that entering the market early can yield more, but they forget that fish heads are full of bones! I've seen too many people trapped 50% in the market just to grab that 10% profit, and in the end, they couldn't hold on and sold at the floor.

In fact, after confirming the bottom, there are chances to get in, even waiting for a 10% rebound before entering is better than being trapped. This is particularly true for spot trading; patience is not weakness, but a skill for survival.

Next time someone tells you 'this is the bottom', don't believe it! First, compare it with the three signals I mentioned. Want to know how to track these signals in real-time? Follow me! Every Wednesday, I will break down market volume and patterns, explaining in the simplest terms 'whether you can enter' without making vague predictions, only providing practical signal interpretations – follow me, so you don't step into a pit next time you buy the dip!#ETH走势分析