“Hey brother, is the bull market completely over? Has the bear market already entered the stage?” I mean, this question is more common than the tea eggs at the breakfast stall downstairs from my house, but today I’m determined to tear off the mask of the market and share some hard truths that no one in the crypto circle dares to say!
As an old hand who has been in the crypto circle for 9 years, when I first entered the industry, the old players kept telling me about the “four-year bull-bear cycle,” and I rolled my eyes bigger than a plate: “Isn’t this just a trick to fool beginners?” It wasn’t until the mainstream crypto assets fell nearly thirty percent from their highs, and a bunch of small coins were directly halved, with some even dropping to just a fraction, that I learned a hard lesson from the market: bull and bear markets are never just shouted out; they are hammered out by actual declines. The slap from this market is harsher than my ex-girlfriend's temper.
The "crash warning" hidden in the market has long been glaringly obvious. At the beginning of the month, when mainstream assets were grinding sideways in a certain range, didn't a bunch of niche coins pop up as if they were on steroids, with some increasing several times in a single day? When I saw this scene, my heart sank; it was almost a replica of the tail end of the bull market in 2021! Back then, mainstream assets were as stable as a rock, while various meme coins took turns performing, and in just a few days, the entire market entered a "free fall" mode.
Back then, I was earnestly warning everyone about the risks in the forums, and I was mocked by a group of "high-flying warriors": "Old Yang, are you getting old? You're as timid as a mouse!" What happened? Soon, hundreds of billions in leverage across the internet were liquidated, and many people instantly transformed from "doubling gods" back to "workers", with their annual gains wiped out overnight. Looking back now, those "profit effects" during the frenzy were simply traps laid for the greedy, and not many who jumped in managed to escape unscathed.
Here’s a hardcore rule for you: This year happens to be the 18th month after the halving, and I’ve scoured through the historical data of the crypto market, discovering that whenever we reach this point, there’s a high probability of a trend reversal. Looking at the technicals, the three-year critical moving averages and annual lines—these "lifelines"—have been broken consecutively, and now everyone is focused on a certain key support level. If this level cannot hold, the trend may completely turn. What’s even more painful is the macro situation; the interest rate cut expectations that everyone was hoping for have basically evaporated, and many officials have continuously released tight signals. Coupled with tightening external liquidity, thinking you can rely on the so-called "Christmas rally" to turn things around? I advise you to abandon that thought early, lest your hopes lead to greater disappointment.
Actually, I really want to tell everyone, don’t spend every day staring at the K-line guessing bull or bear markets, it’s really unnecessary. I predict that the market is likely to oscillate within a certain range by the end of the year, and if it breaks below the lower limit of the range, the probability of a bear market becomes very high. But I’m not worried at all; I even think it’s an opportunity. Look at the fund flow of ETFs; there are still several hundred million in net inflows in a single day, which indicates that big funds haven’t left at all; they are just waiting patiently for an opportunity.
After spending a long time in the crypto circle, you understand that there has never been a bull market that rises straight up, nor a bear market that falls all the way down. The law is that what peaks must decline, and what declines must rebound. Instead of staring at the screen every day trying to guess the ups and downs, it’s better to calm down and focus on three things: keep enough spare funds and don’t go all in; all-in operations often end up being ground down by the market; recognize the core value of the sector and don’t switch randomly; those air coins with no technology and no scenarios rise fast but fall faster; when others are crazily following the trend, don’t join in; greed is the biggest enemy in the crypto circle.
Remember, the real big opportunities never arise in the midst of boisterous celebrations, but quietly sprout in the silence of the market when no one is talking. Patience is more precious in the crypto circle than short-term doubling; after all, I’ve seen too many people lose all their principal due to their eagerness for quick gains.
