To be honest, the Federal Reserve's expectation reversal this time is too intense! Not long ago, there was a 60% probability of a rate cut in December, but now the CME data has dropped directly to 32.8%, nearly halving the difference, all thanks to the collective hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve officials—Vice Chairman Jefferson clearly stated that rate cuts should be slow, directly extinguishing the market's hopes for easing.
Now everyone is waiting for tonight's 9:30 PM September non-farm report, this data, delayed due to the government shutdown, is simply a life-and-death symbol at this moment. Previously, the small non-farm ADP already showed improvements in the labor market; if tonight's data exceeds expectations, a rate cut in December will basically be off the table; if it's weak, the doves could make a comeback.
Don't be fooled by Goldman Sachs predicting two rate cuts in March and June 2026; in the short term, the market only recognizes the signals at hand. The hawk-dove divide within the Federal Reserve has reached its highest level in 32 years, and this wave of policy repricing depends entirely on whether tonight's non-farm report provides an answer. Brothers, are you ready to stay up all night watching the market? $BTC
