Meow Uncle previously stated in his analysis of SUI that I believe the reasonable price for SUI is below 1.2U. At that point, I will consider bottom fishing. After this rapid decline, SUI's price has already approached 1.2U. So, is it time to start bottom fishing now? Can the fundamentals of SUI still support its return to 5U? Meow Uncle will study this carefully.

Current focus points of the track

SUI's core advantage lies in speed. Currently, the best DApps on SUI are all in DEFI, DEX, and aggregators. The support for various DEFI protocols remains very generous. Although Cetus and Momentum have seen a decline in TVL, user activity has not significantly weakened. The main reason for the decline in TVL should be the decrease in token prices leading to a TVL adjustment. The fundamentals of the SUI chain cannot be entirely valued based on the decline in TVL.

The important future layout of SUI still lies in wealth management, payment, RWA, and other tracks. Currently, the wealth management sector is indeed developing well, but there are still too few landing projects in payment and RWA. Additionally, there are no blockbuster projects like UNI on other chains, combined with the recent overall decline in the cryptocurrency market, the level of market quietness is comparable to April 2025. Under the premise of a poor overall environment, retaining the current core sectors and strengthening them is fundamental.

Technical characteristics of SUI

Parallel execution architecture: Sui adopts the Narwhal consensus protocol and Tusk's asynchronous transaction sorting technology to achieve high levels of parallelization

Sui Move Language: Based on the Move language developed by Facebook, Sui Move features modularity and strong composability, improving the execution efficiency and security of smart contracts.

Innovative consensus mechanism: In July 2024, Sui released the Mysticeti consensus engine, reducing consensus latency to about 390 milliseconds, enhancing transaction processing speed.

Friends who have used the SUI chain should feel that SUI's speed is sometimes faster than SOL, providing higher yield rates for LPs, with various incentives for LP players.

Core data of the SUI chain (TVL, transaction volume, APP revenue)

TVL has seen a massive decline, currently dropping below the extremely low value of April 2025. The reason for this deeper drop compared to April is likely that the lowest price of SUI in April did not experience a massive downward adjustment like this time, rather it remained stronger than the current price. Therefore, the market's panic did not overly reduce the overall capital stock, and the decline in TVL was not as significant as it is now.

However, this decline has indeed exceeded expectations. If the TVL of the SUI chain continues to drop, it will be quite difficult to return to the high point of 5U later.

Overall transaction volume has declined for 7 weeks, currently approaching the extremely low point of April 2025. If nothing unexpected happens, we should be able to see the extremely low point of transaction volume in mid-December. At that time, the trading level will be comparable to April 2025, creating a very good hitting point, whether to speculate for a rebound or to believe that the bull market has not ended and to position for the next wave of bull market gains.


The revenue of DAPP has also been declining sharply, and the highest income in October has still not reached the level of June. We also have a chance to see the annual low of DAPP in mid-December, which will be an excellent opportunity to enter and seek profits.


Front insert and back insert

Overall, the performance of the SUI chain's various data is very average, already infinitely close to the level of April 2025. This is certainly an opportunity. The focus now is to observe whether SUI's rebound strength under the current weak price situation meets expectations. If signs of recovery in on-chain data can appear during subsequent low-level fluctuations, SUI remains a good token choice.

SUI's performance is completely weaker than expected. What happened??

In previous articles, Uncle Meow detailed the issues with SUI. From the data, the decline of the SUI chain roughly began in the second half of 2025, and there has been no significant improvement by the end of 2025.

In mid-2025, the first DEFI protocol on the SUI chain, CETUS, was hacked, resulting in a total fund loss of 60 million. Later, SUI took decisive action, using a blacklist + proxy trading operation to forcibly recover the stolen funds, while also compensating users for their stolen funds. I must admit that SUI handled this matter very well. Although this incident ended satisfactorily, it planted seeds of doubt regarding SUI's security at the time. The most discussed issues were also the decentralization of the SUI chain, which can directly freeze funds, leading to centralized FUD (although I believe security is more important, many foreign players think that the SUI chain is centralized, which goes against the original intention of blockchain). Later, there were also reports of security issues with the Momentum protocol, further deepening the security FUD surrounding the SUI chain.

Then, since August 2025, the explosively popular perp has had nothing to do with the SUI chain, and the Chinese meme trend on BSC has not been caught up by the SUI chain. Recently, the only breakout has been the launch of MMT on BN, but after a surge, it immediately plummeted, bringing more FUD to retail investors and not improving SUI's reputation, but rather exacerbating users' doubts about the SUI chain project.

A series of "misses" and "FUD" in the latter half of 2025 for the SUI chain largely stem from the project's weak market perception and slow response to hotspots. In the world of cryptocurrency, to be at the "center of the vortex," one must enhance their market perception.

Summary

Regarding the current SUI, I still maintain a wait-and-see attitude, especially since the decline in October has been significant, and compared to other similar altcoins, SUI's decline is much larger. Since the market has such low expectations for SUI, there must be reasons behind it: perhaps insufficient popularity or innovation. Regardless, the market has already shown a bearish view on SUI's performance.

Assuming a future bear market, Uncle Meow must check SUI's profitability and innovation before purchasing. A good project must have a good price. If SUI can return to below 1.2U in the future, I personally believe it will be back to a relatively attractive price, and then DCA strategies can be implemented based on specific circumstances.