Here are the main factors that are putting pressure on the market and confirming our theory.

Structural weakening of the market. Sellers dominate, investors protect profits, liquidity at key support levels is being depleted.

The movement of 'long-term holding' BTC. Tens of thousands of BTC from long-inactive wallets are entering exchanges, creating excess supply.

Shift in sentiment in the futures market Interest has shifted from call options at $140,000 to puts at $85,000, indicating expectations of further decline.

Critical level for MicroStrategy $74,430 – average purchase price of BTC by MicroStrategy. Approaching this level heightens nervousness.

Risk of exclusion from the MSCI index MSCI's decision in January 2026 could lead to forced selling of MSTR shares worth $28-90 billion.

💡 What does this mean for the market?

These factors together create a feedback loop:

  • Weakening of the spot market → Shift in sentiment in derivatives → Increased volatility.

  • Increased volatility and approaching buffer levels (like $74,430 for MSTR) → Tests the resilience of major players.

  • Potential shock from MSCI → Adds systemic risk, forcing the market to seek new, lower support levels.

The market is consistently testing and breaking one support level after another, with the next important milestone around $74,000.

I hope this analysis helps you in building and testing your theory.