Wall Street economists stated that the delayed September employment report released last week has made the Federal Reserve's decision-making path for December's interest rates more complicated.

"Whether to maintain or lower interest rates may see multiple dissenting votes," wrote Michael Feroli, Chief U.S. Economist at JPMorgan, in a research report last Thursday. "We believe this is a very close decision, even closer than last September. Previously, we expected a rate cut next month, but now we lean towards the committee skipping a rate cut next month, while still expecting cuts in January and May, followed by a pause."

The September jobs report showed that the U.S. economy added 119,000 jobs that month, easily exceeding economists' estimates of 51,000. However, wage data was revised downwards, and the unemployment rate rose compared to August.

After the data was released, the stock market initially rose but closed lower. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its next policy decision on December 10.

Comments made by New York Fed President Williams last Friday suggested that a rate cut is still under consideration. Williams stated that employment risks have increased, while inflation risks have subsided.

"I believe monetary policy is in a moderately tight stance, although the degree of tightening is slightly lower than before our recent actions," Williams said in a speech in Santiago, Chile. "Therefore, I still believe it is necessary to make further adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate in the near term to bring the policy stance closer to the neutral range, thereby maintaining a balance between our two goals."

Following the comment, the market's probability of a rate cut in December rose from 39% to 73%.

Economists point out that the September jobs report is outdated due to the government shutdown, and although the headline numbers exceeded expectations, the details are not all good news.

The correction of early data shows that the U.S. economy lost 4,000 jobs in August, whereas the previous report indicated an increase of 22,000. In July, 72,000 jobs were added, lower than the previous report of 79,000. The unemployment rate rose slightly from last month's 4.3% to 4.4%. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate increased from 62.3% to 62.4%.

"We are seeing the unemployment rate rise while the labor force participation rate is also increasing," said Gregory Daco, chief economist at Ernst & Young-Parthenon, in an interview. "This means that more people are on the margins of the labor market as of the end of summer."

"From the Federal Reserve's perspective, another interesting phenomenon to watch is that we see downward pressure on wage growth," he added. "We know that many Federal Reserve policymakers are cautious about further loosening monetary policy due to concerns that tariffs could lead to persistent inflation. This downward pressure on wage growth suggests that the second-round effects generated by wage growth are unlikely to materialize in a weak labor market."

Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab, said that the report itself will not change the direction of interest rates.

"At this stage, this is already quite old news," she said in an interview. "Therefore, it will be important to obtain more current data." She added, "We have always believed that there would not be a rate cut in December, and I think at this stage, this report does not provide the Federal Reserve with the ammunition needed to change its stance and cut rates. I believe there are still divisions within the Federal Reserve based on these numbers."

The article is a reprint from Jinshi Data and is not to be taken as any investment advice!#美国非农数据超预期