The U.S. non-farm payrolls in September increased by 119,000, far exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, triggering policy disagreements.

On November 20, 2025, the highly anticipated U.S. non-farm employment report for September was finally released. The data showed that the non-farm employment population increased by 119,000, far surpassing the market expectation of 51,000, setting the highest record since April. However, this report is filled with contradictory signals: despite the impressive increase, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, reaching a new high since October 2021.

The devil is in the details of the data: the data from the previous months has undergone significant downward revisions. The number of new jobs added in August was sharply revised from an initial 22,000 to a decrease of 4,000, turning into negative growth; July and August combined saw a downward revision of 33,000. This pattern of 'strong first, then revised' suggests that the real state of the labor market may be weaker than it appears.

Market immediate reaction: Due to the mixed data, the market experienced drastic fluctuations in expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December. According to the CME FedWatch tool, after the data was released, the market's expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut in December briefly dropped to around 39.1%. The U.S. stock market responded with declines, with the S&P 500 index closing down 1.55%, and the Nasdaq index, which is predominantly tech stocks, falling even deeper. The cryptocurrency market was not spared either, with Bitcoin briefly dropping to a low of $86,100. #美国非农数据超预期