📍 FED VOTE UPDATE: The Tilt Toward a Rate Cut Is Becoming Clear
Here’s the inside view of the current Fed voting landscape:
📌 Collins (Boston) – Hawkish:
Sees inflation still high, September job market uneven and weakening, even amid early signs of economic recovery. Predicts slower growth by year-end → Not supporting a rate cut.
📌 Miran (Pro-Trump):
Notes that November CPI comes after FOMC, so short-term prints can’t drive the vote. Wants decisions based on forecasts, not raw data. Technically, his vote isn’t decisive, but it pulls neutral members toward a 25bps cut.
📌 Jefferson – Fed Vice Chair:
Calm and measured: Financial system stable, no AI bubble, tech revenues holding expectations. Doesn’t explicitly call for a cut, but his tone suggests no appetite for tightening.
📍 Current Vote Breakdown:
• Against a cut (3): Musalem, Schmid, Collins
• For 25bps cut (5): Miran, Waller, Bowman, Williams, Cook
• Undecided/Key (4): Powell, Jefferson, Barr, Goolsbee
➡️ Market expectations are leaning toward a 9–3 vote for a rate cut, with Powell likely siding with the cut given his recent remarks.
💡 Takeaway: The Fed seems poised to trim rates, and markets are already bracing for it.
