On Saturday, the market stopped its decline, and the cryptocurrency price is too low! The voices calling for a bear market are increasing! After all, being tortured by the market has left many in tatters!
At this stage, it's very likely that the market will start to move! In this circle, a downturn is always to clear leverage and gather capital. Excluding a bear market! So, is it a bear market now? My personal view is, not yet.
First: Trump's year-end election next year will heat up in March, and before that, the probability of entering a bear market is too low. After all, Americans are currently the largest group of cryptocurrency users in the world, and a bloodbath (entering a bear market) would leave voters with nothing, leading to a decline in approval ratings. The same logic applies to the U.S. stock market.
Second, the regulation is becoming clearer, and the CFTC will fully take over the cryptocurrency space. A clear legal framework will be more conducive to the normalization of cryptocurrencies, leading to the incubation of projects and the alignment of global crypto assets towards the United States.
Third: Trump has been focusing on the Federal Reserve this second half of the year. This recent drop is a result of hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials leading to the mispricing of risk assets! If there is no interest rate cut, the decline will be countered by a return of confidence due to an interest rate cut.
In my personal judgment, the recovery has started, today is an upward trend, and the rebound of altcoins is also quite decent! Tomorrow during the day, there is a high probability that the upward trend will continue, and then on Sunday night, it is quite likely that there will be a pullback due to institutions starting work on Monday and the U.S. stock market opening! This risk can be considered in the short term! For the phase of the market, consider those that have risen a lot before and have corrected a lot. Hot money in these will generally make a comeback! Focus on leading public chains like SOL, XRP, NEAR, and UNI! After all, in a risky market, funds usually first go to stable large-cap assets.
