Today's market, to be honest, hasn't seen particularly dramatic fluctuations, but the subtle changes in market sentiment, the flow of funds, and the performance of several key assets are quietly telling us that the market is brewing the next major direction.
In the past week, people's mindsets have actually been quite divided: some have started to position themselves early, some are worried about a pullback after a rise, and some are simply lying flat. However, it's during this phase of 'unified consensus not being achieved' that the most easily overlooked opportunities arise.
Below are my complete observations and thoughts for today.
1. Bitcoin: Moving steadily, but it's a steadiness that makes people uneasy
Today, BTC is slowly oscillating in the $103,000—$105,000 range with little volatility, appearing to have nothing to say. But I actually feel that behind this 'stability' are two important signals:
1) The upward momentum has not disappeared, it is just being suppressed
On-chain data and holding structures show:
Old users have not significantly reduced their holdings,
Institutional positions remain stable,
Although ETF inflows have receded from the explosive period, there has been no continuous net outflow.
This means that the market is not weak, but is waiting for external events to drive the next jump.
2) Short-term sentiment is cautious, but not panicked
In the past few days, many short-term traders chose to step back and observe, but funds have not left the market; instead, they are waiting in the stablecoin zone for news.
In summary:
This is a normal intermission in an upward trend, not a reversal.
Two, Ethereum: Upgrade expectations are accumulating; the market lacks patience but the direction is still upward
ETH has been slightly weaker than BTC in the past few days, hovering around $3,250—$3,400.
The reason is actually very simple:
Large funds are waiting for the next round of technical upgrade confirmations;
The continuous inflow of funds after spot ETF approval is limited;
There are no new highlights at the narrative level.
But this does not mean ETH is weakening; on the contrary, I believe ETH's price is reflecting 'impatience' rather than 'lack of value.'
From a medium-term perspective, ETH still has three logics:
Staking yields are steadily increasing;
The MEV structure is becoming increasingly mature;
The L2 ecosystem remains the industry's largest innovation cluster.
So the market criticizes it every day for 'not performing,' but on the data level, funds have not left.
Three, altcoin sector: liquidity is slowly returning to mainstream tracks
You will find that in the past few days, the hotspots for altcoins have decreased, and sentiment is not as strong as before.
This is not a bad thing; on the contrary, it means:
Disorderly short-term funds are beginning to recede;
Liquidity is concentrating towards 'mainstream narratives';
Some truly structurally valuable sectors are starting to become cheaper again.
Today I observed three key trends:
1) The infrastructure is still the most resilient against declines
L2, Modular, Data Availability Layer DA has hardly seen significant declines. This indicates that they are already recognized by the market as medium to long-term allocation targets.
2) AI concept exhibits divergence
There has been no widespread surge or widespread correction, only some quality projects are slowly increasing in volume. This 'point-to-area' process is the real trend.
3) RWA narrative returns to rationality
After the OM event, the market's attitude towards RWA shifted from blind optimism to cautious selection.
This is actually a good thing: after deflating the bubble, we can see who truly has the capability to land.
Four, on the funding side: the market is waiting for events, not trends
If you ask me, what is the most critical variable right now?
It’s not about technicals, not about sentiment, and not about who tweeted.
Rather, funds are waiting for event statements.
Includes:
The direction of the Federal Reserve's December interest rate meeting;
The U.S. Treasury's attitude towards cryptocurrency asset regulation;
Whether macro funds are shifting back towards risk assets;
The situation of fund inflows in the Asian market by the end of the year.
These events have not really landed yet, so funds are waiting.
But this is not a retreat, it is building momentum.
The signs I see are—
Net inflows of stablecoins continue to grow, on-chain activity remains at a medium to high level, and various market makers' positions have not significantly reduced their holdings.
The market is not dead, it is just taking a deep breath.
Five, my conclusion: the real trend will not change because of a few days of consolidation.
The current state of the market, I would summarize in one sentence:
'This is not panic at high levels, but an intermission in an upward trend.'
You and I both know that the hardest part of the market is not the drop, but the consolidation.
The scariest thing about consolidation is the lack of direction, making people doubt their understanding of the market.
But from the perspective of data, sentiment, mainstream ledgers, and institutional positions, there are no reversal signals.
What is most important next is not chasing highs and cutting lows, but:
Maintain position rhythm;
Focus on mainstream event windows;
Confirm whether the logic of the medium-term target still holds.
Many people's profitability does not fail in judgment, but in not being able to withstand the wait.
