The crypto market is going through one of the darkest phases in many months. BTC has dropped below 96,000 USD, the daily chart looks truly 'painful', and the general sentiment has only one word: decline.

Every rebound is being heavily sold, liquidity is thin, buyers are weak, and sellers are not hesitant at all. No one knows where the bottom is – only that the feeling that it could still drop further weighs heavily on every time frame.

But November is not over yet. And if a few triggering factors activate at the same time, this entire atmosphere could change color in just one session.

1️⃣ ETF: If It Stops Selling Off And Returns To Gather Cash Flow – Everything Changes Immediately

ETF cash flow is playing a key role.
If the string of withdrawal days stops and switches to just a few light inflow sessions, the market will be completely different:

  • The bid side is thicker

  • Arbitrage begins to gather spot

  • Selling pressure is significantly reduced

  • Sentiment stabilizes again

Not infrequently throughout the year, it is the ETF cash flow that reverses the market in just a few hours. This could definitely happen again.

2️⃣ Fed: Meeting Minutes on 19/11 – Just a Slight Lean Towards “Soft” Is Enough for Yields to Drop, BTC to Bounce

The market has recently traded almost 1:1 with real yields.
If the Fed meeting minutes (28–29/10) show:

  • signs of concern about growth

  • noting that the labor market has cooled

  • more optimistic about the inflation reduction process

=> Yields can drop very quickly.
=> BTC, ETH, and the entire crypto market could turn green in a few hours.

But the risks are not small:

Due to the U.S. government shutdown, the CPI and October jobs report may be missing or delayed, causing the Fed to assess the situation with incomplete data.
This could make them more cautious or inadvertently somewhat “almost” hawkish, which could continue to weigh on the market.

3️⃣ China: Just One PMI News Or Hinting At Economic Stimulus – Asia Risk-on Immediately

China remains an unpredictable variable.
Some minor signals such as:

  • PMI exceeded expectations

  • speaking “hinting” about the stimulus package

  • liquidity is lightly pumped into the system

=> enough for the Asian market to turn risk-on.
Crypto tends to react the fastest and strongest to this type of signal.

4️⃣ Pumping Short-squeeze: Silent But Accumulating Every Day

After a continuous decline:

  • most traders are shifting to open shorts

  • deep negative funding

  • OI leans to one side

  • liquidity on the spot is low

Just one strong bounce can break this entire structure in a few minutes:

  • Shorts are forced to close

  • Market Makers must hedge long

  • Prices are pushed up strongly and unexpectedly

  • Creating real buying pressure rather than just a squeeze

Many strong reversals in the past began exactly from a state similar to the current one.

🔚 Conclusion

Right now, nothing can stop the market from falling further.
Weak sentiment, thin cash flow, ETF sell-off, Fed ambiguity, China silence – everything is unfavorable.

But the crypto market is notorious for changing direction in an instant.

If:

  • ETF stops selling off and switches to inflow,

  • the Fed meeting minutes on 19/11 are softer than expected,

  • China is signaling stimulus,

  • the short market is being squeezed,

… then the entire month of November could reverse in a single session. The market is bleeding, but the opportunity to “flip color” is not over yet.