🧐 How to determine the next market direction?
In the face of a situation where bulls and bears intertwine, mere guessing of the bottom is not as good as closely monitoring the signals the market sends out. You can track the market's development from the following dimensions:
1. Observe the offensive and defensive positions at key price levels
· Core support level: Pay close attention to whether the $100,000 mark can be effectively reclaimed and stabilized. If it is completely lost, the next support area to focus on is between $92,000 - $97,000.
· Core resistance level: On the upside, $106,500 and $109,000 are initial resistances. More importantly, $110,000 (near the 200-day moving average), only when the Bitcoin price remains stable above this moving average, could it mean a true reversal of the downward trend.
2. Track the real movements of institutional funds
· ETF flow is a barometer: It is a fact that institutions like BlackRock are hoarding for long-term strategies, but the short-term price is driven by the daily fund flows of ETFs. You need to closely monitor whether the U.S. Bitcoin ETF can end outflows and show a stable net inflow for 5-10 consecutive trading days, which is the most direct signal of institutional demand returning.
· Beware of "liquidity flush" risk: Some analyses indicate that in the later stages of market panic, to clear out highly leveraged long positions, a rapid "liquidity flush" may occur, leading to a sharp price drop before a rebound begins. You need to be prepared for risk control.
3. Seek catalysts from the macro environment
· Federal Reserve's policy: The market places all hopes on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in December. You need to pay attention not only to "whether to cut interest rates" but also to "whether to cut by 25 basis points or 50 basis points," as this will determine how much new liquidity the market can obtain.
· Release of economic data: Due to the previous government shutdown, a large amount of economic data has been delayed in publication. The successive release of these data (such as employment, CPI) may cause a new round of market fluctuations.
💎 Summary and decision-making thoughts
Overall, your cautious viewpoint is well-founded. Market sentiment is weak, key technical levels have been lost, and before clear bullish signals appear, "preserving capital and staying on the sidelines" is a wise strategy.
Regarding your final question — "Is the bull still there?":
· In the short term, the bull is indeed resting. The weakness of the market needs time to repair $BTC
