Bitcoin's pullback has approached the long-term upward support line near two years, and the market has entered the initial stage of a bear market. Once the long-term trend line is broken, the market will transition to the mid-stage of a bear market, where the decline is the greatest.
How much can Bitcoin's pullback in this bear market go down to? Let's look for patterns from a technical perspective. In the last bear market (2022), there was a strong consensus that the lowest point of the 2022 bear market adjustment should not break below the previous bull market's highest point (the highest point of the 2017 bull market at 19875). However, the 2022 Bitcoin bear market did break below the 2017 bull market's highest point of 19875, dropping to a low of 15450. So, in this new bear market, Bitcoin's adjustment could very likely drop below the previous bull market's (2020-2021) highest point of 69,000.
Looking at the last bear market (2022) for Bitcoin, the bottom was indeed below the key long-term support level of the previous major bull market at 28800, which completely released market selling pressure, bringing the market to a relative bottom of the bear market. Thus, in this round of Bitcoin bear market testing the bottom, it is very likely to drop below the key long-term support level of the 2023-2025 bull market at 74500, releasing the market's bearish capacity, and the market may enter a relative bottom of the bear market.
In this bear market, a 50% adjustment for Bitcoin means it will drop to 63100.
From a technical perspective, after breaking the long-term support level of 74500, the next long-term support for Bitcoin will be the lowest point in August 2024 at 49000.
According to the adjustment patterns of the market's bull and bear cycles mentioned above, it is highly likely that this round of bear market for Bitcoin will adjust to below 74500, breaking the previous bull market's highest point of 69,000, to some price above 49000 and below 69000, forming the absolute bottom of the bear market.
The above content is a simple recounting of seeking patterns from market history in a simplistic manner.