The truth after the U.S. reopened: the market is in panic, and smart money is loading up.
The U.S. government has finally reopened, and this time, the market is facing not just the end of the shutdown but a liquidity earthquake on the scale of a trillion dollars.
For the past 40 days, the U.S. Treasury's TGA account has acted like a giant vacuum pump, continuously sucking liquidity out of the market. Tax revenues are coming in, expenditures are stalled, resulting in over 700 billion dollars locked in the Federal Reserve's vault.
This is the fundamental reason why Bitcoin fell below 99,000: it's not a collapse of faith, but cash has become expensive.
But this vacuum state will not last forever.
As the government resumes spending, the TGA is about to release at least 1 trillion dollars in liquidity. In the coming weeks, this money will flow from the Treasury accounts to various contractors, businesses, and residents' accounts, and then into risk assets through the capillaries of the financial system.
In other words, the money that the market lacks is about to come back.
However, reversals are never smooth.
The government shutdown lasting 40 days has brought not only fiscal blockages but also data blindness. Due to the suspension of operations by agencies such as the Labor Statistics Bureau and the Department of Commerce, the Federal Reserve will not receive complete employment and inflation data in the coming weeks, which means Powell is temporarily blind.
What the market fears most is not bad news, but inability to price.
When traders cannot predict the Federal Reserve's next policy move, they tend to sell first and ask questions later. We are likely to see a panic pullback triggered by distorted data in the coming days, and perhaps Bitcoin will test 99,000 again, or even lower.
But this is not the beginning of a collapse; it is the vacuum zone before the flood.
Because this round of quantitative easing has no buffer.
The balance of the RRP (reverse repurchase agreement) has fallen below 100 billion dollars, nearly exhausted, which means the liquidity released from the TGA will be directly injected into the banking system. In simple terms: this 1 trillion will not be absorbed but will directly overflow into the market.
More subtly, the timing of the regulatory resumption coincides perfectly.
The SEC has previously completed the generalization modification of the ETF listing standards, and after resumption, it will accelerate the approval of ETFs for more asset classes. After $BTC and $ETH , the market will welcome a batch of phenomenal products that introduce new water into new channels, and $SOL , XRP, DOT, and other second-tier leaders may return to the main stage.
Short term: chaos and panic.
Medium term: liquidity flooding.
When the market panics over poor quality data, smart money is already loading up.
