Large investors who purchased the first cryptocurrency at prices around $110,800 have started to massively lock in losses. Analysts at CryptoQuant have noted this.
Since October 28, $BTC it has been trading below the average acquisition cost of the new cohort of whales. This has triggered a wave of profit realization, which peaked on November 7 (-$515.1 million).
From November 4 to 8 alone, they lost over $1 billion.
Earlier, experts also recorded a record activity of long-term bitcoin investors transferring huge volumes of cryptocurrency to exchanges. However, they noted that selling pressure is being offset by new buyers who continue to hold their positions.
"Death Cross"
The price of digital gold dropped to $105,000 after recovering to levels around $107,300. According to analysts at CoinDesk, the attempt to rise and subsequent decline reinforced the significance of the earlier bearish breakout.
They emphasized that the current dynamics have exacerbated concerns about the formation of the "Death Cross" — a bearish pattern where the 50-day moving average drops below the 200-day moving average.
To cancel the negative scenario, the first cryptocurrency needs a confident breakthrough above $107,250, experts emphasized.
A trader under the nickname Sykodelic believes that Bitcoin will reach a local bottom in the next five days. His analysis is based on "Death Cross" data for the last seven years, starting from the bullish rally of 2017.
After the formation of the bearish pattern, a growth of at least 45% from the minimum followed each time. If digital gold follows historical dynamics, after falling to a local bottom, it is expected to rally to $145,000, the expert believes.
Positive signals
Despite the pressure, conditions are emerging in the market for potential growth. Analyst CryptoQuant under the nickname MorenoDV_ noted the emergence of a rare liquidity configuration that previously preceded significant bitcoin price movements.
According to him, a similar situation has only been observed a few times since 2020.
The SSR index returned to the lower historical range at level 13 — the same zone where local minima formed in mid-2021 and throughout 2024.
"Each time Bitcoin traded in a calm mode before making a powerful jump," noted the expert.
A characteristic pattern is observed on #Binance : stablecoin reserves are increasing, while digital gold stocks are decreasing. This dynamic has repeatedly preceded market recoveries, indicating the exhaustion of sellers and the accumulation of positions by strong players, MorenoDV_ emphasized.
Macroeconomic support
Experts from the Bitget exchange believe that the combination of soft Fed policy and growing institutional demand creates a foundation for significant bitcoin growth. They predicted movement in the range of $90,000-160,000 in the next six months.
In the medium term, specialists predicted a rally of the first cryptocurrency to $120,000-350,000.
"We maintain a positive outlook on Bitcoin, even despite short-term market fluctuations. The growth of interest from traditional capital and inflow of funds into crypto ETFs create sustained demand, which has already become a key driver for the entire sector," noted Bitget Research's chief analyst Ryan Lee in a comment to ForkLog.
The expansion of stablecoin supply and net inflow into bitcoin ETFs confirm the market's transition to a more mature phase. Demand is increasingly being formed by fundamental trust from investors rather than speculation.
Fluctuations may be caused by the Federal Reserve's decision regarding the key rate at the meeting in December. The situation around Stream Finance and the decline of the US stock market may also put pressure on digital assets.
"However, Bitcoin has already gone through the main phase of correction, and the potential for decline remains limited," Lee added.
