The CPU is about to burn out! The night at the 98,000 mark is terrifying; does this wave of bear market actually hide reversal signals?
First, let me be frank with everyone: When I was watching the market last night, my palms were all sweaty, not because I was afraid of losing, but because the bizarre degree of this drop exceeded normal logic! As someone who has seen three bull-bear transitions, I must responsibly say: the current market is no longer as simple as 'the big players slaughtering retail investors'!
Stop believing in the self-comfort of 'there's support below'! This round of decline is not due to retail panic selling but rather the main funds quietly harvesting while the 'market cools down' — when most bulls are forced to stop loss in the 110,000 - 105,000 range, the current market has become an awkward situation of 'no leeks to cut'. What you think of as 'being stuck in the middle' is just a necessary path for the main force to 'clean up floating capital'.
A few days ago, a big shot shouted, 'We need to make a certain country the center of crypto assets.' Last year, this would have been a bomb-level positive news that directly triggered a surge, but now the market is as still as a hibernating snake — this is not due to the positive news losing effectiveness, but because the market is digesting the aftermath of the 'institutional explosion wave' in November. When everyone sees that so-called 'big institutions buying the dip' are just smoke bombs, who dares to easily get on board? The current market is: institutions are watching, retail investors are laying flat, even the air is filled with a cautious 'dare not move'.
Mu Qing's exclusive technical analysis
Daily level: MA5 and MA20 death cross continues to diverge, but RSI has reached the oversold zone (below 30) — this is the third time in the past six months that a 'death cross + oversold' divergence signal has appeared. Historical data shows that after this situation occurs, there is a 70% probability of a 3-5 day corrective rebound, but the rebound height is limited, don't expect to return to above 110,000;
4-hour chart: near 98,000, three long lower shadows appeared, clearly indicating that funds are secretly buying (this is not a scale that retail investors can achieve)! Practical suggestion: near 101,500, you can take a small position to go long, with the replenishment node at the 100,000 integer mark, and the stop loss must be set below 99,000 (to avoid being trapped), the first target looks at 105,000;
3-day line dimension: after pulling back to the long-term trend line (also known as the 'bull-bear watershed'), every time it touches this position in the past three years, there has been at least a 15% rebound space — but be careful! The long-term trend is still downward; the rebound is just a 'correction within the trend', not a reversal. After the rebound is in place, it may be an opportunity to layout short positions.
A fan told me: Is there still a chance for the 107,000 that got stuck? My answer is: short-term, it can be unblocked, but don't be greedy! The core pressure point for this rebound is in the 105,000 - 107,000 range (the area where most retail investors are stuck). The main force won't easily act as 'liberators', and it is highly likely to choose a direction after shaking out in this range. Those shouting for an '180,000 target' should prioritize 'unblocking' first. In a bear market, staying alive is more important than anything else!
I remember a certain 'coin issuance big shot' recently exploding with a loss of 50 million; I can only say 'what goes around comes around'! Those who rely on pulling up prices to cut retail investors have long been out of date. The current market is becoming more rational; those trying to deceive people into buying with calls have no chance! But I also want to remind everyone: if this guy runs out of money and comes back to stir things up, make sure to stay far away — in a bear market, preserving capital is more important than anything else.
Finally, let me tell everyone honestly: this wave of market movement is not 'only down without rebound', but a rebound is brewing, albeit with limited strength. Don't panic if you're stuck; decisively reduce your position when it rebounds to the pressure point; don't be greedy if you haven't gotten on board; wait until the range of fluctuations is clear before taking action.
Follow me! As Mu Qing, who has been deeply involved in the crypto space for 8 years, I will never let my fans pay tuition fees for nothing in this wave of market movement. If you find my analysis useful, please like + follow, and leave your stuck price in the comments. In a bear market, let's huddle together for warmth and not endure it alone!
