Last night, the FOMO sentiment driven by CZ's self-buying rose to 1.285, but today it has dropped? A conspiracy?

Last night's false breakout above the 5-day moving average of 1.25 was not solid, and during today’s lunch break, it was crashed down by Bitcoin, currently nearing a 20% drop, now near the lower limit of the wide fluctuation range around 1.02! If it breaks this level with increased volume, it will trigger stop-loss sell orders from quantitative robots, further probing down to 0.95 USD (20-day moving average support).

Currently, the RSI is showing an oversold signal: the 12-hour RSI reading is 33.06, indicating that the price has entered the oversold zone, increasing the probability of a rebound.

1. For those brothers who chased high positions last night and are now facing losses, don’t rush to average down. The conditions to average down are:

Price Trigger: If ASTER drops to 0.95u (a further drop of 6.8% from the current price) or 0.90u (a further drop of 11.8%), averaging down can be initiated.

Volume Verification: Before averaging down, confirm that the 24-hour trading volume is not less than 500 million u to avoid bottom-fishing during liquidity exhaustion.

In summary, the rapid drop this afternoon, don’t panic, this is not solely caused by the bearish news from #ASTERUSDT ! This is due to the short-term market sentiment being very sensitive! The reasons that are not bearish are as follows:

2. Bullish Catalysts:

Repurchase Mechanism: Daily repurchase of 7.12 million USD in fees (about 3.5 million pieces/day) may form a "buying reservoir," especially pushing prices up when trading volumes recover.

Third Stage Incentive: The "Dawn" incentive period ending on November 9 may attract new users into the market, bringing in incremental funds.

3. Key Monitoring Indicator Reference Tips

1. On-Chain Data Tracking

Exchange Fund Flows: Monitor the net outflow of ASTER from exchanges like Binance through Nansen. If the net outflow exceeds 10 million USD for three consecutive days, it is considered a bullish signal.

#巨鲸动向 : Focus on the movements of key addresses like xxx3c745 among the top ten holding addresses to avoid counter-trading with large holders.

2. Key Technical Nodes

- Support Levels: 1.00 USD (psychological level), 0.95 USD (20-day moving average), 0.90 USD (0.382 Fibonacci retracement level)

- Resistance Levels: 1.05 USD (5-day moving average), 1.10 USD (10-day moving average), 1.13 USD (recent high)

Summary: The current price fluctuation of ASTER is essentially a normal correction after the bullish news has been realized. CZ's buying behavior and high TVL provide a safety margin, but caution is needed for short-term selling pressure after the airdrop ends.

Follow Chen Ge to avoid getting lost, like and comment to increase wealth!