The crypto market fell 1.29% in the past 24 hours, extending a 5.93% monthly decline. Key drivers include miner sell-offs, leveraged liquidations, and bearish derivatives sentiment, amplified by weak risk appetite in traditional markets.

  1. Miner Exodus – BTC.com sold 186K BTC ($19.9B) to Binance, signaling panic.

  2. Leverage Unwind – $234.7M in BTC liquidations, mostly longs, triggered cascading sell-offs.

  3. Derivatives Fear – ETH options expiry and analyst calls to short Ethereum fueled downside.

Deep Dive

1. Miner Sell-Offs (Bearish Impact)

Overview
BTC.com, a major Bitcoin mining pool, transferred 186,000 BTC ($19.9B) to Binance in October, per CryptoQuant. These transfers spiked during local price lows, suggesting miners are offloading holdings to cover operational costs or hedge losses.

What it means
Miners typically sell reserves during price declines to manage cash flow. This adds sustained selling pressure, especially when combined with long-term holder (LTH) profit-taking, which rose to $2–3B/day in early October.

Watch for
Further on-chain miner outflows – a key signal of capitulation.

2. Leverage Liquidation Spiral (Bearish Impact)

Overview
Bitcoin saw $234.7M in liquidations over 24 hours, with 87% from long positions. Open interest in derivatives rose 6.32%, indicating traders added leverage near local tops before getting squeezed.

What it means
High leverage (average funding rate: -0.0018%) created a tinderbox. As prices dipped, forced selling accelerated, particularly impacting BTC and ETH.

Watch for
Funding rate shifts – sustained negative rates may signal excessive bearish bets.

3. Macro Correlation & Sentiment (Mixed Impact)

Overview
Crypto’s 24h correlation with the S&P 500 (SPY) hit +0.86, its highest since July. With U.S. equities down on recession fears, crypto mirrored the risk-off move.

What it means
Crypto remains tied to macro liquidity. The Fear & Greed Index at 31 (“Fear”) reflects eroded confidence, though social sentiment scored a neutral 5.41/10.

Watch for
Friday’s U.S. PCE inflation data – a hotter print could deepen losses.

Conclusion

Today’s drop stems from miner/distributor selling, leveraged long unwinds, and fragile macro sentiment. While technicals show oversold conditions (RSI-14: 43.95), recovery hinges on stabilizing equities and reduced derivatives volatility.

Key question: Will Bitcoin hold $113K support ahead of Friday’s inflation data, or face another leg down?