The current market is filled with a subtle "testing atmosphere".
On one hand, Powell remains adamant, insisting that "it is too early to cut rates", while on the other hand, Trump's team is secretly "preparing the succession", paving the way for Powell's exit.
The implication is clear—Wall Street has begun to question whether Powell can continue to set the pace.
This is the awkwardness of the current situation: the news is repeatedly tugging, but the sentiment is brewing.
Every word from Powell is dragging the market down, while the political undercurrents are preparing for a "new cycle" in advance.
The conclusion of the China-U.S. meeting releases the signal of "friendship first, friction second", which is a short-term positive for risk assets, especially the cryptocurrency market, which may lead the way in a rebound testing trend.
Tonight's data is a key point for market direction:
20:30 U.S. core PCE, personal spending, and labor costs all in play, representing a three-dimensional measure of inflation + consumption + employment.
21:30 Federal Reserve's Logan speaks; if the tone is dovish, it will directly trigger a decline in the dollar and a rise in risk assets.
21:45 Chicago PMI is announced; if it is below expectations, it will increase the market's speculation space for rate cuts.
At midnight 00:00, Bostic takes the stage, and the market will take the opportunity to interpret "whether there are any internal dovish voices".
Overall, tonight is about "sentiment game night".
Powell's hawkish remarks are being digested, Trump's political moves are brewing, and what the market loves most is this "power game combined with data stimulus" act.
For short-term strategies, it is recommended to remain flexible and guard against data spikes on both ends.
If PCE is below expectations, a light position can be tested for long; if the data is strong, wait and see before taking action.
Tonight is not a night for direction; it is a night for patience and timing.
