Today, October 29, 2025, let's talk about one of the most 'common topics' in the cryptocurrency world that always manages to stir the market's nerves—Mt.Gox's repayment. This case, which has been pending for over ten years, is like an eternally long-running series that never reaches its conclusion.
Interestingly, just when everyone thought that the final repayment deadline originally set for October 31, 2025, was approaching, the latest official announcement once again played out the 'familiar formula': the deadline has been postponed once more, this time directly extended to the distant October 31, 2026. This marks the third significant delay.
1. Echoes of history: The ancient beast called 'Mt. Gox'
For many newcomers, Mt. Gox may just be a vague legend. But for the veterans, it represents a savage, tragic era full of lessons.
Time turns back to 2010, when Mt. Gox was established in Tokyo, Japan, and quickly rose to become the largest Bitcoin exchange in the world. In those days when Bitcoin was just a plaything for geeks, it was almost synonymous with Bitcoin trading. However, the glory came to an abrupt end in 2014. That year, Mt. Gox claimed to have lost about 750,000 Bitcoins due to a hacking incident and subsequently declared bankruptcy. This event directly crashed Bitcoin prices from their peak, triggering the first 'bear market' in the crypto world, the effects of which are still not fully dissipated today.
Since then, Mt. Gox has entered a long and despairing process of legal liquidation and civil rehabilitation. Hundreds of thousands of creditors have begun a ten-year wait; the value of the Bitcoins they lost has skyrocketed from hundreds of dollars each to tens of thousands over time, making this 'recovered wealth' extraordinarily large and sensitive.
2. Potential release scale: How heavy is this 'sword'?
After years of asset recovery and accounting, the trustee of Mt. Gox holds a massive amount of crypto assets. According to cross-validation from multiple sources, this pending repayment asset mainly includes:
About 142,000 Bitcoins (BTC)
About 143,000 Bitcoin Cash (BCH)
And about 69 billion Japanese yen in fiat currency
Estimated at current market prices, the total value of just the BTC and BCH portion is about 9 billion USD. This is undoubtedly an astronomical figure, enough to instill awe in any market participant.
In fact, the repayment action has gradually begun in 2024. Starting from the end of 2023, some creditors received compensation in yen, while larger-scale BTC and BCH repayments are set to start around July 2024 and will be conducted in batches.
3. Market psychology and actual impact: Has the wolf really come, or is it just the story of 'the wolf is coming'?
This is the question we care about most. What will happen when tens of thousands of Bitcoins truly enter the market for circulation?
1. The source of panic: The undeniable selling pressure
The market's concerns are simple and direct: Creditors have waited for ten years, and many of them may choose to sell immediately after receiving Bitcoins to lock in this 'windfall'. This concentrated, large-scale selling action could theoretically create huge selling pressure (i.e., 'supply pressure'), leading to a significant short-term drop in Bitcoin prices.
History seems to confirm this concern. In 2024, when several messages related to Mt. Gox's fund transfers or repayments were reported, Bitcoin prices experienced short-term declines ranging from 4% to 8%, even briefly falling below 60,000 USD. Every fluctuation in the market seems to be a stress test.
2. Rational voices: The overvalued 'Goxxening'
Multiple analytical reports and on-chain data indicate that the market may have over-digested the impact of Mt. Gox.
The true intentions of creditors: These creditors are not ordinary retail investors. They are among the earliest believers and holders of Bitcoin. Investigations and data indicate that most creditors chose to receive compensation in BTC rather than yen, which itself conveys a strong signal: they prefer to continue holding rather than cashing out immediately. Surveys in the Reddit community also show that creditors are not in a hurry to sell. They have endured a long night of ten years and have a deeper understanding and faith in cryptocurrency.
The market's absorption capacity is no longer what it used to be: The crypto market in 2014 and today are two completely different worlds. Now, Bitcoin's market cap has already surpassed one trillion USD, and the market depth, liquidity, and participation of institutional investors have all grown exponentially. Although 9 billion USD is not a small amount, for today's mature market, the gradual release is completely within the absorbable range.
Information transparency and expectation management: The repayment plan of Mt. Gox has been discussed for several years, and its potential supply has long become part of the market consensus, which can be said to have been 'priced in'. More importantly, repayment will be done in batches and gradually, rather than in a one-time 'flood', which provides the market with ample buffer time.
Conclusion
Overall, the awakening of this ancient beast, Mt. Gox, seems more like a continuous test of market psychology rather than a substantial destructive blow. The repeated delays of the repayment deadline to 2026 have extended this short-term impact into a long-term, slow digestion process.
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