The weekly line settled at eight o'clock in the morning, with two consecutive downward candles turning into a bullish reversal, and the bottom is continuously rising, from 101500 to 103500 and then to last week's low of 106500. The stage low is moving up, and last week's overall rebound reached nearly ten thousand points, closing with a large bullish candle, allowing for a conversion of the long and short positions this week, shifting from weak to strong. Today, the opening price also pierced through the high point of the last two weeks at 116000. Although the continuity is not enough, from the perspective of the weekly pattern, the pullback still has momentum!
And how much upward space is there afterwards? Looking at the weekly basis now, it will challenge the strong resistance at 118000 and 120000. This is the momentum for the next move and also the obstacle before refreshing the historical high. Usually, we talk about trend confirmation, but has it formed now? It hasn't, the reason being that the price has not stabilized. What does stabilization mean? It means confirmation after this week's closing. So for those who want to see a strong upward trend, pay attention to the final trend of this week. If the price stabilizes at 116000, it means the trend is strong. If it stabilizes at the 120000 mark, it means it is extremely strong, which indicates another challenge near the historical high point. This is the real-time trend!
Another concern everyone has is whether there is still downward momentum. I can clearly inform everyone that there is. The timing will depend on this week. Whether we can go down depends on this week. If the weekly chart turns, the trend will continue to challenge the 107000 support. To be more precise, it will start from the day after tomorrow. I mentioned this point last week, firstly because of the timing rules of the current trend, and secondly due to the timing rhythm of interest rate cuts. I have been waiting for this timing, and this week we will see the results!
Some friends have also mentioned that they missed the opportunity to buy at the bottom and are feeling a bit uncomfortable watching the price rise. In fact, you can look back at the amplitude of the altcoins, which remains in the 10%-20% range, and has not shown a completely strong rebound mode. This is also not what I want. As you all know, my bottom-buying model starts with a minimum rebound space of 30%, and the normal profit space for a retracement needs to reach 50% to be effective; otherwise, what is the point of bottom buying? What's the difference with short-term trading? Why did the altcoins I provided earlier all start from 30%? The reason is that there is this momentum. If we can't achieve this space, then why participate? Perhaps everyone's perspective is different, but for me, completing the task means bottom buying two or three times a year!
The previous starting and ending point was at 114000. Now that it has broken through, the corresponding continuation is a normal trend. This week's support is focused on 112000, and if it goes down further, it will be 107000. For those holding onto bottom buying, be sure to pay attention to these two points. Losing either one will put you in a passive position. If you don't adjust in time, you will slowly lose the initiative. For those who have not bottom bought, continue waiting, continue waiting, continue waiting. Do you think this is the low point? Look closely; prices above 100000 are all considered high-level fluctuations. The profit space from the retracement is completely disproportionate to the loss risk from the downside. You can read this paragraph a few more times to understand my point!
On the daily chart, we have four consecutive bullish days, and today is very likely to close bullish as well. The main strong rhythm still lies in the rebound from early last night. You can look back and see that every Sunday for the past three weeks has been a rebound rhythm, and the strength of the rebound is not small. After that, Monday may have a slight breakout and then start a decline. This point must be noted, as tomorrow is Tuesday. So according to the timing rhythm, it is easy to see a situation of stagnant rise followed by a decline. Of course, this is also a matter of probability; we just need to pay attention to every rule to avoid making mistakes in our operations!
Today's pressure is focused on the 117000-117500 area. This position belongs to the top and bottom conversion on the daily chart. If you want to go short, use this range for layout, specifically around 117200. If the US market first breaks the intraday low and then rises, the rebound momentum will increase, meaning that even 118000 will be hard to withstand the strength in the early morning. Subsequently, you can pay attention to the 118500-119500 area for resistance. The specific point at which it will stop depends on the timing. Of course, if it directly starts to rise, we can work around the 117000-117500 area!
The support below is definitely around 113500. This point, when viewed on the 4-hour chart, is displayed vividly. As long as it touches for the first time, we can attempt to go long once. There's no choice; previously, during the downward trend, this point was touched multiple times, leading to a decline and forming a significant resistance. Now that it has broken through, we naturally cannot ignore this point. In the short term, it can be said that it’s better to make a mistake than to miss the opportunity to go long. Although there are other positions with momentum, such as the 114000-114500 area and so on, the risk is hard to control, leading to an aggressive model. For me, it's still about being steady! $BTC
