US-China "Ceasefire" ≠ BTC Ignition, 120000 Absence Reminds Everyone: Macro Benefits Can Only Save Life, Not Extend Life

🔥 Event Review

• 15 days ago: Trump stated "100%→150% Tariffs", the market shook, BTC flashed back from 122000 to 110000.

• 48 hours ago: Kuala Lumpur negotiations landed, US Treasury Secretary Yellen personally confirmed a "very substantive framework agreement", the 100% tariff option was officially eliminated.

🧩 Why is it a "Moderate Rebound" rather than a "Rocket Launch"?

1️⃣ Benefits Have Been Priced In

Smart money built positions during the "rhetoric" phase, agreement finalization = selling facts, classic "buy rumor, sell news".

2️⃣ The Federal Reserve is Still the Boss

Tariff risk retreating ≠ accelerating rate cuts, December dot plot hangs overhead, capital dares not high leverage chase long.

3️⃣ Altcoin Liquidity Exhausted

CEX daily trading volume decreased by 40% compared to Q1, market maker budgets have been slashed, no new narrative = no buyers.

💡 Three Practical Reminders

① Macro can "bottom" but cannot "lift"—don’t harbor the delusion that "good news must surge".

② Keep 30% in stablecoins to earn 4-5% returns, wait for the Federal Reserve's next move to add positions.

③ For altcoin rebounds, strictly set "time stop-loss": if it doesn't return to key levels within 3 days, directly cut positions to maintain liquidity.

🎯 Next Phase Observation Checklist

• 110000 dollars becomes the new mid-axis of the BTC box, break below 108000 to look bearish; only above 116000 is there hope to retest 120000.

• Whether the total market value of stablecoins increases for two consecutive weeks → a hard indicator of incremental capital entering the market.

• US December CPI and interest rate expectations → determine the ceiling for risk assets.

Summary in One Sentence:

The US-China talks have cleared the "tariff landmines", but the real oxygen for the crypto market is "dollar liquidity".

Don’t be led by headlines, on-chain data is the guiding light.

Control your hands, keep your bullets ready, wait for the wind to come.

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