The DOWNTREND Has Begun

After the sharp crash on October 10, many investors seemed to brace themselves for another “legendary uptrend” like in March 2020 — when chaos turned into a surprising market rebound. But the financial market rarely behaves the way people expect. When everyone anticipates a new bull run, it’s often the moment a silent downturn begins.

Today, nearly all major assets have reached or approached their peaks — gold, Bitcoin, even stock indexes. Inflation is cooling down, and interest rates are starting to fall, which ironically makes the market even riskier. The recent rally was fueled mainly by the expectation that rates would eventually decline. When rate cuts actually happen, speculative money tends to pull back. This is the classic case of “buy the rumor, sell the news” — on a macroeconomic scale.

Smart capital doesn’t stay forever in speculative markets. It seeks real growth — in technology, production, clean energy, and sustainable value creation for society. The market merely mirrors collective psychology, and once that sentiment stalls, a genuine downtrend begins.

I believe the crisis has already peaked. The market’s recent rise was sustained by faith — faith that the crisis was still ongoing, that governments would continue printing money and launching rescue packages. But once people realize the worst is over, fear-driven capital exits — and that’s when the true downtrend starts.

The market never repeats the past exactly, but it always makes people believe that “this time is different.” When the crowd becomes convinced that the bull run has returned, it’s often the beginning of a new decline. The downtrend isn’t the end — it’s a necessary cleansing phase before true value emerges.