This round of the bull market has ended, and it is estimated that the number of participants will only decrease in the future, leaving only institutions, large holders, and exchanges engaged in speculation, with retail investors being few and far between, mostly targets for harvesting. As a seasoned player who has experienced years of bull and bear cycles, to be honest, I have never seen such a difficult market. I specifically went on-chain and checked the community, and most people unanimously believe that we are approaching the end stage. The market indeed shows some signals that the bull market may be nearing its end.
On-chain data shows that the current Bitcoin bull market is in its final stage, having passed 1058 days since the last cycle low, which means this cycle has completed 99.3%, leaving only 0.7% remaining. Moreover, it has been 543 days since the Bitcoin halving, placing it within the historical peak window of 518-580 days.
In terms of institutional activity, Bitcoin ETF inflows have changed from +$627 million to -$4.5 million outflows, while ETH ETF outflows reached -$174.9 million, and on-chain indicators also reflect a cooling market.
In September, the cryptocurrency market experienced a significant drop, with 400,000 liquidations, mainly due to the correction of Fed easing expectations, unusual movements of institutional funds, and excessive market leverage. On October 11, the crypto market experienced severe volatility again, with $19.1 billion liquidated, 1.62 million accounts going to zero, Bitcoin plummeting 15%, and Ethereum crashing 20%, with the U.S. tariff war, government shutdown, and liquidity withdrawal being the triggers for this volatility.
However, some bullish views believe that Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract institutional inflows, and the scale of Ethereum ETFs is also expanding, which has boosted market confidence in cryptocurrencies. Historical data shows that large-scale inflows into ETFs often trigger a rotation of funds towards altcoins, giving rise to an 'altcoin season.' Bulls expect this phenomenon to occur by the end of 2025, pushing some mainstream projects to break previous highs.
