In today's morning session, ETH quickly declined from around 3960 to 3660, a drop of nearly 8%. Supported by buying pressure at lower levels, the price rebounded, reaching a high of 3830, but failed to break through the key resistance area at 3900. Subsequently, the price fell back below 3800, indicating that selling pressure from above remains heavy.
Overall, this week ETH has shown a structure of 'initial rise followed by a fall', with resistance at high levels and the market entering a consolidation phase in the short term.
2. Technical Structure
1. Resistance Zone: 3900 - 3960
• This zone overlaps with the previous dense trading area and the daily MA20, forming strong resistance above.
• If the subsequent rebound fails to break through this zone, the short-term trend will likely remain weak with fluctuations.
2. Support Zone: 3750 - 3660 (short term) / 3500 - 3300 (medium term)
• 3750 and 3660 are the key buying zones and stage lows for this round of rebound.
• If this area is lost, the medium-term support below is in the range of 3500 to 3300, which is a potential main force turnover area.
3. Pattern and Trend Judgment
• From a 4-hour perspective, ETH has formed a 'double top' prototype at 3960, with the neckline area around 3660.
• If the neckline is effectively broken, the short-term trend will confirm a weakening.
• The RSI indicator has retreated near 60, while the MACD has formed a death cross and diverged downwards, indicating a decline in short-term momentum.
3. Volume and Market Structure
• The trading volume has expanded during the day, with a significant reduction in volume during the low-level rebound, indicating a lack of sustainability in the market's rebound.
• There are clear signs of short-term position reduction by the main funds, with some funds flowing into the gold market for hedging.
• If the volume cannot effectively recover, it will be difficult for the price to break through the resistance above 3900.
4. Macroeconomic and Related Markets
International gold has recently continuously broken new highs, reaching a maximum of 4380 USD/ounce.
PAXG on Binance soared to 5100 USD during the session before quickly falling back to around 4200 USD, indicating that the market is undergoing a significant turnover at high levels.
The correlation between gold and the cryptocurrency market has strengthened, as high-level fluctuations in gold often indicate a phase of differentiation in global risk appetite.
Considering the current background of the US dollar index fluctuating at high levels and risk assets being under pressure, the flow of funds shows characteristics of 'risk aversion switching'. Whether in the cryptocurrency market or the stock market, the current market is entering a phase where profits from early winners are gradually being realized, and a new trend direction is expected next week.
