🎯 Event Review

During yesterday's trading session, ETH exhibited significant price fluctuations. Within just a few minutes, its price first surged and then showed a notable pullback. The market displayed exceptionally active buying and selling competition, influenced by both external macroeconomic uncertainties and internal liquidity pressures along with high leverage risks. Overall, this volatility reflects the intense struggle between bulls and bears, as well as a rapid shift in market sentiment at critical moments.

⏱️ Timeline

  • 18:30
    ETH price hovered in the range of $3679 to $3685, at which point signals of external economic risks and internal capital volatility pressures emerged.

  • 18:30～19:16
    Within 46 minutes, the ETH price rose rapidly from $3679 to $3805, with an increase of approximately 3.42%. This phase saw concentrated buying, indicating market funds taking advantage of adjustments to quickly replenish positions.

  • 18:30～19:25
    Another set of data shows an increase from $3685 to $3817, with a rise of approximately 3.60%, reflecting the continuous driving force of the bulls and the release of localized liquidity.

  • 19:45
    Subsequently, the ETH price retraced to $3778.66, and the phase adjustment following the surge indicates that the market is encountering some profit-taking pressure at high levels.

🔍 Reason Analysis

The recent volatility in the ETH market is mainly influenced by the following two factors:

  1. External macroeconomic and policy uncertainties
    Global trade frictions, expectations of tariff policy adjustments, and rising risks in the credit market are continuously stimulating market risk aversion. Recently, tensions between the U.S. and China have intensified, along with hints from certain high-level officials about adjusting tariff policies, leading to localized turmoil in traditional financial markets, which in turn affects the digital asset sector.

  2. Internal liquidity pressure and high leverage risks
    Recently, a large number of whale positions have been liquidated, and frequent liquidations of leveraged short positions have triggered drastic changes in localized liquidity. Data shows that the total liquidation amount across the network reached $8 million within the last hour, with short positions accounting for nearly 80%. This phenomenon of high-leverage trading and rapid capital flight has caused the ETH price to surge and plummet within a short time, resulting in a relatively extreme market performance.

📊 Technical Analysis

Based on [ETH/USDT Binance USDT perpetual 45 minutes] candlestick data, we can see the following several technical characteristics:

  • Indicator Trend

  • The KDJ indicator has shown significant divergence, indicating that recent upward momentum is strengthening.

  • The OBV (On-Balance Volume) has crossed above its moving average, releasing a buy signal.

  • Trading Volume Situation

  • The trading volume has increased by about 72.92% compared to the previous cycle, indicating a significant rise in market activity.

  • Current trading volume is significantly higher than the 10-day average and is in the top 10% of the recent 10 cycles, showing a large accumulation of funds in the short term.

  • Moving Average Arrangement

  • MA5, MA10, MA20 are overall in a bearish arrangement, and the price is running below EMA20, EMA50, EMA120, suggesting a weak short-term trend.

  • The slope of EMA20 is steeply downward (approximately -1.01%), corroborated by EMA24 (-0.96%) and EMA52 (-0.68%), indicating significant bearish pressure in the medium to long term.

  • Other Technical Signals

  • RSI has broken the upward trend line, indicating a local short-term bullish signal.

  • TD Sequential is in the bullish Setup phase (7/9), suggesting that after some adjustments, there may be a short-term rebound opportunity.

Overall, although some indicators on the technical front show local reversal signals, the overall moving average system and trading volume structure still indicate significant medium to long-term downward pressure, presenting a situation of short-term volatility coexisting with medium to long-term weakness.

🔮 Future Market Outlook

Looking ahead, the ETH market is expected to continue to maintain high volatility:

  • Short-term Operation Suggestions
    In the context of intense long and short battles, short-term traders can focus on key support and resistance zones, using local reversal opportunities for swing trading. However, they must guard against the chain liquidation risks triggered by high leverage and large liquidations.

  • Medium to Long-term Risk Alerts
    If macroeconomic and policy risks continue to exist, along with unresolved internal liquidity issues, medium to long-term adjustment pressure may be faced. Therefore, conservative investors should focus on risk control, postpone large-scale investments, and wait for the situation to become clearer.

  • Focus Points
    Market participants need to closely monitor international economic trends, as well as the latest developments in U.S.-China trade and the credit market. At the same time, on the technical front, attention should be paid to whether reversal signals such as RSI and TD Sequential can materialize, and whether the moving average system shows effective stabilization signs.

In summary, although the current ETH price occasionally shows brief rebound signs amidst severe fluctuations, the overall risk remains high. Rationally viewing market fluctuations, focusing on capital management and risk hedging will be key to responding steadily to market volatility in the near future.

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