Recent Bitcoin network data $BTC shows that the market has entered an advanced speculative phase, which suggests that the digital currency may be in the final stages of the current bull cycle.

Where the net unrealized profit/loss ratio NUPL and the realized capital of Bitcoin Realized Cap indicate that investor behavior reflects typical characteristics of a late stage in the bullish cycle.

Control of new whales

Data from CryptoQuant indicates that the net unrealized profit/loss ratio (NUPL) has reached +0.52, a level typically associated with the transition from optimism to euphoria, as seen during market peaks in 2017 and 2021.

Investor confidence remains strong, with about 97% of the circulating supply realizing profits, although this reduces the chances of additional upside without a cooling period.

At the same time, short-term holders represent 44% of the capital realized for the currency, which is the highest recorded level. This indicates that long-term investors are realizing their profits, while the influence of new investors (or what are known as new whales) on the market is increasing.

It is noteworthy that the shift from long-term holder dominance to short-term often signals the end of the expansion phase in a bullish market, but the current situation is more complex.

Institutional inflows through spot ETF funds, increased liquidity of stablecoins, and expanded market participation help absorb selling pressure, resulting in more stable speculative momentum.

But overall, the data shows that the market is supported by strong liquidity and continuous inflows, not just by the enthusiasm of individual investors.

Analysts believe that the decline in the share of short-term Bitcoin holders may signal the next major transition, explaining that the market may shift from a speculative phase to an accumulation phase, usually led by long-term investors, in preparation for the upcoming bullish cycle.

Market movements require very close attention

The Santiment platform has taken a cautious stance, finding that the price is slightly stable above $113,000, amid a moderate upward trend from traders.

Another major move occurred on Sunday, when individual investors anticipated a price drop below $100,000, creating an ideal buying zone. However, prices often move in the opposite direction of common investor expectations.

In turn, crypto analyst Ali Martinez pointed out that the digital asset must regain $119,000 to maintain upward momentum, and failing to do so could lead to a correction towards $96,530.

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