On the eve of Powell's speech, global capital holds its breath
In the final "talking" window before the Federal Reserve's October meeting, the speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has become the focus of the global financial market. At 12:20 AM Beijing time on Wednesday, Powell will deliver an important speech at the National Association for Business Economics in Philadelphia, marking his first major public appearance since last month's Federal Reserve policy meeting, undoubtedly attracting the attention of global investors.
Last month's Federal Reserve policy meeting was turbulent. The meeting revealed significant differences among officials regarding the timing and magnitude of future interest rate cuts. At that time, the Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00% - 4.25%, however, the new board member Milan advocated for a larger cut—50 basis points, a proposal that sparked widespread controversy.
From the perspective of economic forecasts, Federal Reserve officials can be roughly divided into two factions. One faction holds a more aggressive view, believing that further interest rate cuts are necessary within the year to address potential economic risks; the other faction is relatively conservative, feeling that the current policy stance is already sufficiently accommodative and does not need urgent adjustment.
In this context, Powell's upcoming speech is particularly critical. His remarks are likely to serve as a "guiding stick" for fine-tuning market expectations, determining the direction of global capital in the coming months. The global capital markets are eagerly awaiting, trying to capture clues regarding the Federal Reserve's subsequent monetary policy direction from his speech, in order to seize opportunities in the complex and changing financial market.
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