🧭 Current state of the crypto market — Executive summary
The crypto market started October with high volatility. After hitting highs at the beginning of the month, $BTC it is now stabilizing around $115k, showing a correction from recent peaks. ETH is around $4,000–4,100, $BNB is trading around $1,300, and $SOL is moving near $190–200. Institutional activity is still present: significant inflows into ETFs continue to provide liquidity and structural support to the market.
🔍 Technical Analysis (by asset)
•BTC
After the rebound from $108k (structural support), Bitcoin is now consolidating between $112k–$118k. Technically
If it breaks and holds above $119k, there is room to attempt new tests in the upper zone of October.
If it loses key supports, it could seek lower levels at $113k and $108k.
Indicators still show positive momentum on larger frames, but RSI warns of overbought conditions in short terms; hence we expect technical consolidations.
• $ETH
Ethereum shows greater relative resilience. Dynamic supports at $3.5k–$3.8k; relevant resistance at $4.2k–$4.7k. If it holds above $4k, it may try to retake higher levels; a failure below $3.7k would widen the correction.
• $BNB
BNB maintains a daily bullish structure with support at $1.15k and resistance at $1.30k–$1.33k. Recent volume confirms purchases on pullbacks.
• $SOL
Solana retested critical levels near $190–$200; the resistance to watch is at $232–$233. A sustained close above $232 would pave the way to $240–$250; losing it would pose a risk of falling to $210 or $200.
🧾 Fundamental analysis and market drivers
Institutional flows (ETFs): remain a pillar of the market; strong inflows into BTC and ETH ETFs maintain structural demand.
Recent geopolitical/macroeconomic shock: trade and tariff measures (US–China tensions) generated rapid sales and liquidations in crypto, causing sharp corrections in recent days. Such news explains part of the volatility and liquidation volume observed.
Monetary policy: expectations about the Fed and possible cuts determine risk appetite; any less dovish tone may pressure crypto/stocks, while a dovish tone tends to favor rallies. (Macro events of the week will be key.)
⚖️ Scenarios and what to do (today / tomorrow / this week)
🔥 Scenario A — Bullish continuation (likely if supports hold)
Condition: $BTC > $ 112–115k and $ETH > $3.8–4k.
What to expect: retesting resistances; rotation towards high beta altcoins (SOL, L2, infrastructure tokens).
Action: maintain longs with risk management; take partial profits at resistances.
🔥 Scenario B — Extended correction (if supports fail)
Condition: drop with volume and break of key supports (BTC < $112k).
What to expect: correction of ~8–12% in BTC (zones $108–113k), greater impact on altcoins.
Action: reduce leverage, protect gains with stops or hedges (puts/options), seek staggered purchases at confirmed supports.
✅ Tactical recommendations (for traders)
Take staggered profits at historical resistances.
Stops: adjust by structure (not by emotion); for example, below key daily support in BTC.
Hedges: consider options or reduce leverage if imminent macro risk.
Liquidity watch: days with strong news (Fed, employment data, geopolitical decisions) increase the risk of gap/volatility; avoid very tight limit orders if you cannot monitor.
📌 Today's correction is largely a cleanup of leverage and reassignment after October peaks. The underlying bias remains constructive due to institutional adoption and flows to ETFs, but the week will be decisive: macro data and geopolitical news can tilt the balance towards consolidation or a new selling wave. Adjust position size, protect profits, and trade with discipline.
