📊 TUT/USDT Technical Analysis - October 12, 2025 $TUT

🔴 Current Situation:

Price: $0.02707 (-19% in 24h)

📉 Technical Indicators Show Strong Bearish Trend:

15-minute chart:

- RSI(24): 26.6 - oversold zone

- Price below all MAs (20/50/200)

- OBV negative: -444M

1-hour chart:

- RSI(24): 21.7 - critically oversold

- Strong selling pressure

- OBV: -1.27B

4-hour chart:

- Drop from peak 0.13695 to 0.02707 (-80%)

- RSI: 25.5 - oversold

Daily chart:

- Two consecutive pump-and-dumps

- Each subsequent peak lower than previous

- RSI: 34.5

🎯 Price Movement Forecast:

Scenario 1 (Most Likely): Technical Bounce 📈

- Target: 0.030-0.035 USDT

- Reason: Extreme oversold conditions (RSI < 25)

- Probability: 60%

Scenario 2: Continued Decline 📉

- Target: 0.024-0.026 USDT (new low)

- Reason: If 0.026 support fails

- Probability: 30%

Scenario 3: Sideways Movement 〰️

- Range: 0.026-0.030 USDT

- Probability: 10%

💭 Why Is The Token Falling? Root Cause Analysis:

1️⃣ Lack of Long-Term Holders

Investors aren’t holding tokens long-term. As soon as price goes up, everyone rushes to sell. There’s no faith in the project.

2️⃣ Quick Profit Mentality

People buy and immediately take profits even at +5-10%. This creates constant selling pressure and prevents price growth.

3️⃣ Possible Exchange Manipulation

Two identical pump-and-dumps on the daily chart look suspicious:

- Sharp rise → sharp dump

- Perfect long liquidations

- Pattern repeats

⚠️ Looks like classic “pump and dump” scheme:

- Exchange or whales pump the price

- Retail traders enter at tops

- Sharp dump occurs

- Cycle repeats

💼 Personal Position: I’m Holding Despite Everything

Full transparency: I’m currently holding TUT tokens, and yes, I’m watching my portfolio bleed. But here’s why I haven’t sold:

📌 My thesis:

- Extreme oversold conditions historically lead to bounces

- Capitulation might be near

- Risk/reward at current levels is interesting

⚠️ The reality:

- Down significantly from entry

- Fighting against momentum

- Could go lower before recovery

Why I’m still holding:

- Waiting for technical bounce to 0.030-0.035

- Hoping for trend reversal confirmation

- Believing in potential (maybe foolishly)

BUT - I’m not adding to position until I see:

- RSI recovery above 40

- Volume increase on green candles

- Break above 0.030 with confirmation

⚡ Recommendations:

For Longs:

- Wait for consolidation above 0.030

- Stop-loss is mandatory

- Don’t catch falling knives

For Shorts:

- Careful due to oversold conditions

- Strong technical bounce possible

- Take profits in portions

For Holders (like me):

- Re-evaluate holding rationale

- Analyze project fundamentals

- Mid-term outlook is uncertain

- Consider DCA only if conviction remains

🎯 Key Levels:

Resistance:

- 0.030 (psychological)

- 0.035 (MA20 on hourly)

- 0.055 (MA200 on 15-min)

Support:

- 0.026 (daily low)

- 0.024 (next level)

🗣️ Community Question:

Are you holding or did you exit? Drop your strategy in comments. Let’s share experiences - maybe we can learn from each other’s approaches.

Also: Do you think this is organic price action or manipulation? The pattern seems too perfect…

⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This is NOT financial advice! I’m sharing my analysis and personal position for educational purposes. Always do your own research and never invest more than you can afford to lose. My holdings don’t mean you should hold too - make your own decisions!

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