Trump has stated so far but has not implemented. Tariffs will start on November 1 (or earlier if China "intensifies" export restrictions on rare metals, crucial for chips, AI, and crypto mining). This is not just words — it is a policy that could escalate into a full-scale trade war between the two largest economies (USA + China = 40% of global GDP).
What has already happened: The statement triggered a "risk-off" — investors flee from risk assets (crypto, stocks, oil) Dow Jones fell by 540 points, crypto stocks (COIN, HOOD) down by 3–12%. China accused the US of "provocation," and the response could be harsh: new export barriers, which will hit global supply chains (semiconductors for GPU mining, blockchain infrastructure).
Why is it worse ahead?
Escalation: If China responds (as in 2018–2019, when the war wiped $2 trillion from the markets), expect a chain reaction. Analysts from The Block and CoinDesk predict: recession, rising inflation (US CPI on October 24 will show), outflows from ETFs. The market could drop another 20–30%, BTC to $90–100k.
Historical context: In 2018, Trump's tariffs crashed crypto by 80% (from $800 billion to $100 billion market cap). The market is larger now ($3.75 trillion), but more vulnerable — 58% BTC dominance, but altcoins in leverage.
